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NOAA Predicts Super-Charged Hurricane Season With Intense Activity (With List Of Names)
May 31, 2024
NOAA is predicting a record 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which begins Saturday, June 1.
NOAA National Weather Service forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center predict above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year. NOAA’s outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to November 30, predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season.
NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). Forecasters have a 70% confidence in these ranges.
The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to have above-normal activity due to a confluence of factors, including near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear, all of which tend to favor tropical storm formation.
As one of the strongest El Ninos ever observed nears its end, NOAA scientists predict a quick transition to La Nina conditions, which are conducive to Atlantic hurricane activity because La Nina tends to lessen wind shear in the tropics. At the same time, abundant oceanic heat content in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea creates more energy to fuel storm development.
This hurricane season also features the potential for an above-normal west African monsoon, which can produce African easterly waves that seed some of the strongest and longer-lived Atlantic storms. Finally, light trade winds allow hurricanes to grow in strength without the disruption of strong wind shear, and also minimize ocean cooling. Human-caused climate change is warming our ocean globally and in the Atlantic basin, and melting ice on land, leading to sea level rise, which increases the risk of storm surge. Sea level rise represents a clear human influence on the damage potential from a given hurricane.
Comments
6 Responses to “NOAA Predicts Super-Charged Hurricane Season With Intense Activity (With List Of Names)”
There were plenty of storms last year just non of them made landfall
“They said the same thing last year and hardly anything ever happened.”
Not true.
The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season was the fourth-most active Atlantic hurricane season on record with 20 named storms forming, which tied with 1933. Among them, seven became hurricanes, with 3 reaching major hurricane strength
For 2023, NOAA actually predicted a near-normal season with 12-17 storms, 5-8 hurricanes and 1-4 major.
They said the same thing last year and hardly anything ever happened.
Yay, I made the list this year.
Best of luck with those homeowners insurance premiums!
Name one Morgan.