NOAA Predicts Above Normal 2022 Hurricane Season

May 25, 2022

Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, are predicting above-average hurricane activity this year — which would make it the seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season. NOAA’s outlook for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which extends from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 65% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.

For the 2022 hurricane season, NOAA is forecasting a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence.

“Early preparation and understanding your risk is key to being hurricane resilient and climate-ready,” said Secretary of Commerce Gina M. Raimondo. “Throughout the hurricane season, NOAA experts will work around-the-clock to provide early and accurate forecasts and warnings that communities in the path of storms can depend on to stay informed.”

The increased activity anticipated this hurricane season is attributed to several climate factors, including the ongoing La Niña that is likely to persist throughout the hurricane season, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and an enhanced west African monsoon. An enhanced west African monsoon supports stronger African Easterly Waves, which seed many of the strongest and longest lived hurricanes during most seasons. The way in which climate change impacts the strength and frequency of tropical cyclones is a continuous area of study for NOAA scientists.

Pictured below: Visible satellite image of Hurricane Ida approaching land in the Gulf of Mexico at 4:10 a.m. on August 29, 2021.

Comments

4 Responses to “NOAA Predicts Above Normal 2022 Hurricane Season”

  1. Guy Gerricault on May 26th, 2022 8:57 pm

    Straight up ignorance in the comment section per usual.

  2. Bill T on May 25th, 2022 4:13 pm

    These people act like what they say is correct WELL!!!! It’s not even close they have been wrong more than right and lucky sometimes!!!! They know when a storm forms but that’s about all !!! After that they can tell you where it at when it’s there after the totally unpredictable!!!

  3. Really phil on May 25th, 2022 3:17 pm

    Phil have you watched the last few hurricane seasons. Go ask Louisiana if they have had normal or below average seasons.

  4. Phil on May 25th, 2022 8:26 am

    They say this every year, and we have a normal year, or less than average.
    They don’t have any credibility when it comes to storms, they are just guessing.

Written by William Reynolds · Filed Under News