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Category 4 Hurricane Delta Track Shifts Slightly Westward
October 6, 2020
THIS IS AN ARCHIVED STORY. SEE THE FRONT PAGE OF NORTHESCAMBIA.COM FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.
Hurricane Delta’s wind decreased to 130 mph as of the 10 p.m. advisory. That is is still a Category 4, but down from 145 mph earlier in the day Tuesday.
As of the 4 p.m. update, Northwest Florida is out of the cone of uncertainty as the forecasted track shifted slightly westward. However, there is still uncertainty about the track and intensity at this time, and residents of Escambia County should continue to monitor the storm. Additional track changes are likely before landfall.
The National Hurricane Center believes it will weaken slightly as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast late this week.
“Even if Delta makes landfall to our west, the local area will still see a threat for storm surge, dangerous surf/rip currents, heavy rain, strong winds, and isolated tornadoes,” the local National Weather Service in Mobile said.
Now is the time to review your hurricane plan and restock any items you may have used during Hurricane Sally.
The latest information on the Hurricane Delta is in the graphics on this page.
Comments
33 Responses to “Category 4 Hurricane Delta Track Shifts Slightly Westward”
“l. But Every single model including the euro models have this one making landfall west of the Louisiana mississippi line.”
And they did too with Sally. Nope.
I don’t want to give anyone false hope but I follow the models religiously for every hurricane and all models point to this storm going to Louisiana or Texas. Every single one. I’m not saying it’s a sure thing bc I can’t predict the future but hurricane sally was predicted ONLY by the European models 5 days out to hit exactly where it made landfall. But Every single model including the euro models have this one making landfall west of the Louisiana mississippi line.
All anyone can reasonably do is pay attention to the experts (they are NOT on the weather channel), realize they are making their best educated guess based on models and probabilities, make appropriate decisions for themselves and their families, and hope for the best.
And finally, if we are lucky enough to get out of this one, it might be nice if we all remember it could just of easily have been us, again, and think about those who weren’t so lucky and toss $5-10 to the Red Cross or other charity that helps people out in these storm.
@Brenda. I believe that was Elena.
I rember one year a hurricane could not make its mind up was coming backwards and forth come our way then went the other way came back here then went back the other way. U don’t rember how it did that. I think it made land fall in penesacola.
Don’t let the slight westward shift at the 4pm update make you think that we are in the clear, folks.
As soon as it reaches the upper level trough coming down through Texas, it will get pushed eastward. How far eastward no one knows.
But Sally was supposed to hit New Orleans and hit us, catching us all unprepared.
Ivan made landfall here, went all the up through North Carolina and looped out into the Atlantic, then crossed the Florida peninsula back into the Gulf, and threatened us a second time before it made a second landfall on the Texas Louisiana border.
Ivan got up to a Cat 5 and was a Cat 3 when it hit us.
If you were around for that, then you know how bad it can be.
These things are unpredictable. There’s a reason weather forecasts are wrong so often.
I hope it goes anywhere but here, but prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
Praying for everyone!
@Citizen
I’m glad you pointed that out in regards to @steve’s comment. I can remember very well a t.s. coming into Louisiana after what seemed to be an early fall had set in. We had a nice week of temps in the 70’s for highs and 50’s for lows which in September is very comfortable compared to what it can be like in Sept in the South as you all know. That year a low on the tail end of one of those strong fronts had started to develops and against the forecast of noaa it formed into a strong t.s. and slammed into Texas and la. Even tho we had cool temps in place.
There also are some studies that suggest the cooler air aloft in October actually helps the development and intensification of tropical systems. Here we go again six weeks after laura. Clean up crews haven’t even finished here yet and now this. Historic season
Dear 2020. You win. I quit. I throw Iin the towel. You have successfully driven me crazy. Now I am going to Baker Act myself. I can’t take anymore. Men in white, come take me to your padded van in a fully sleeved jacket. A human can only take so much.
This track has done shifted to the West. We here in central la. just got hit hard by hurricane laura and now this storm will track almost right over us!??!. Everyone here is in denial right now. Even our longtime meteorologist Tom Konvicka can’t believe this is gonna happen. Its not Sally then delta people….it’s laura then delta. Unbelievable year.
@Steve
You are incorrect, sir.
There’s a reason that October is historically one of the most active hurricane months and hurricane season extends until November 30th.
It’s because water has a high specific heat.
Which means that water heats up AND COOLS OFF much more slowly than air does – in other words, it “holds its heat”.
So while air temps are cooler, Gulf waters are still extremely warm – and it’s the warm water that fuels and feeds a hurricane, not the air.
@Kane
I couldn’t agree more.
If you are going to evacuate then don’t wait for Mr. Thomas to make school closures because we all know that he is reactive and not proactive.
So if you wait for him it will be too late and you will be stuck going nowhere on I-10 or Hwy 29 with no gas.
I too am a parent with a child in school with that said it’s not up to Malcom Thomas to decide when/if you should evacuate that is YOUR decision to make. Stop waiting for the government to tell you what to do and make the best decisions for you and your family.
bet it reduces down to TS status before hitting land. Itss just too cold now to support that cat 4 status.
@Josh;
If I recall correctly, the remnants of Ivan circled around and hit us a second time.
ATTENTION MALCOLM THOMAS:
Category 4 (potentially 5) is no joke.
Homes are damaged from Sally.
Gas is already running low and/or gone.
Groceries will be gone tonight.
Many people will evacuate for this one, and evacuating on Thursday or Friday will be too late as there are only two routes out of town and people from Houston to Pensacola will be traveling on I-10 eastbound.
Schools should already be canceled on Thursday and Friday (and potentially Wednesday – or a half day on Wednesday) to give people time to prepare and/or leave.
Escambia County has already declared a state of emergency – so sorry about your “testing schedule”, but what are you waiting for??
For all the 10000 new residents welcome to pcola. We live from storm storm
I wonder when the county and the school district will make a decision on what to do. As fast as it’s moving they need to decide quickly so people who are already in damaged structures can get out and those who are staying have a chance to gather up and hunker down. This could be dangerous even if it goes in well to the west of us.
what else can you expect out of 2020
first COVID then the tornado this spring then the fires then the earthquake in jay then sally
I’m not surprised anymore
Next a blizzard
@weatherman, graph just shows the probability of tropical storm force winds, not landfall. tropical storm force winds extend well beyond the expected landfall. and yea, mexico will receive those winds when it travels by.
Yeah me, I’m offshore on a supply boat, we get to ride it out. Been a while since I last rode out a hurricane at sea
I recall a tropical depression Or a low hitting shortly after Ivan. Only because I was concerned about my roof leaking due to the blue tarps. Also, current water temps are still in the 80’s just south of us. That’s good enough for development. I’m guessing Delta is going to come finish off the bay bridge and the few trees that didn’t fall yet. I looked at a few rivers up near Jay today, they still seem high which means our water table doesn’t have a lot of wiggle room.
I like how they made the cone from mexico to Florida. I guess they can’t get it wrong this way.
@Past proved pairs Ivan was 2004 and Dennis was 2005.
Just 2020 making sure to clean up properly before leaving…
Sure they get some of this last storm debris cleaned up
from the roadsides or its really going to be a messy
place here.
If it does “drift” Our way, looks like it may be daytime instead of nighttime like Sally was.
You’ve got to be kidding me?!?! By the way, Ivan was in 2004, and Dennis was in 2005, not t he same season. It just seemed that way because Ivan was late in the 2004 season and Dennis was early in the 2005 season.
ITs too cold for a storm to stay together. BUT its showing a cat 2 at landfall so its more likely gonna be a 9…. Crazy world this 2020 had been. Lets get back to odd numbers…19 was great,
If u look back at past hurricane seasons , when one hits our area, it is followed by a second .. Example: Erin and Opal hit in the same season. As did Ivan and Dennis. So I’m looking for another one before it’s over..
So, if we were affected by Sally, should we be worried about this one too? I cant deal with another one back-to-back…
I feel like I have been here before. A possible hurricane in the northern gulf supposedly headed to New Orleans and the NHC discussion sounds vaguely familiar at this point.
“A mid-to upper-level ridge over the western Atlantic is forecast to build westward over the next few days, which should continue to steer the system WNW to NW over the SE Gulf of Mexico….. After 72 hours, the cyclone is forecast to slow down and turn northward around the western portion of the ridge and a mid- to upper-level trough over the south-central United States. The track guidance is in relatively good agreement during the first 48 to 72 hours, but there is increasing spread thereafter. Users are reminded that the average 4- and 5-day NHC track forecast errors are about 160 to 200 miles…..”
Now I wonder what city is 160 miles east of New Orleans as the crow flies.
Hello scaMska…PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE take your barges just around scenic hwy and under i-10 and up into the river by the power plant…THANK YOU
Someone should tell Skanska.
Time to move all the barges towards the Bay Bridge and then cut them loose from their moorings.