What Will This Gulf Storm Mean For Escambia County? Here Are The Details

July 10, 2019

As we continue to watch the development of what will become Tropical Storm and then likely Hurricane Barry over the Gulf, here are the complete details on the local impacts in North Escambia and surrounding areas, directly from our partners at the National Weather Service in Mobile:

LOCAL IMPACTS

  • A flash flood watch is in effect through Sunday afternoon.
  • Regardless of the eventual track and intensity of the system, our confidence is increasing in heavy rainfall later this week (especially along the coast).
  • Rain will increase in coverage across the region through the week and weekend. The potential for heavy rain is trending higher with rainfall amounts of 5-7 inches possible mainly for southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama (further north and east of there, expect a general 3-5″). Depending on how rain bands set up during this event, we could see even higher amounts in isolated areas. The bulk of the rain will begin overnight Thursday into early Friday and extend through the weekend. Expect our usual afternoon showers/storms beforehand.
  • Potential for coastal flooding will depend on the movement and strengthening trend of the system. At this point, it is prudent to consider that minor coastal flooding (1-3 feet) is possible beginning Friday and continuing into Sunday. Depending on the track of the system, more significant coastal flooding may occur especially over coastal Alabama.
  • High Rip Current Risk and increased surf is expected starting Thursday through at least the weekend for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

THE SCIENCE

  • A broad low pressure system located over the northeast Gulf of Mexico has become a little better defined this morning. The system is currently experiencing some northerly vertical wind shear, but the shear is expected to gradually subside over the next day. This system still has a HIGH CHANCE of becoming a tropical depression or storm by Thursday.
  • Some erratic motion will be possible over the next 24 hours or until a well-defined center develops. That said, the general motion is expected to be toward the west-southwest or southwest. By Friday, it is forecast to turn toward the west-northwest and then turn northwestward by Saturday into a break in a deep-layer ridge (currently extending from the southeastern US westward across the southern Plains and into the Desert Southwest). The timing of the ridge breakdown owing to a shortwave trough moving southeast out of the northern Plains will be critical since a later/earlier turn by the cyclone would shift the track west/east of the current forecast.
  • Only slow strengthening is expected for the next 24-36 hours due to the lack of a well-defined center and inner-core wind field, along with some modest northerly wind shear. By 48 hours and beyond, the combination of atmospheric and oceanic conditions become ideal for intensification.

WHAT IS A POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE?

  • Potential Tropical Cyclone was a “new product” back in 2017. It allows the weather service to have the option to issue advisories/watches/warnings for disturbances that are not yet deemed a tropical depression or tropical storm (not fully formed), but which pose the threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land areas within 48 hours. These systems are known as Potential Tropical Cyclones in advisory products and are numbered from the same list as depressions. Because of the threat to the Gulf Coast, advisories have been initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone #2 (further west of our area, toward Louisiana).
  • Under previous longstanding NWS policy, it was not permitted  to issue a hurricane or tropical storm watch/warning until after formation of the tropical system. Advances in forecasting over the past decade now allow the confident prediction of tropical impacts while these systems are still in the developmental stage. For these land-threatening “potential tropical cyclones”, the National Hurricane Center can issue the full suite of text, graphical, and watch/warning products that previously has only been issued for ongoing tropical systems.

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Written by William Reynolds · Filed Under Archive