Poll: Trump Edging Hillary In Florida

July 14, 2016

In a major shift from last month, a poll released Wednesday shows Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump overtaking Democrat Hillary Clinton in the key swing state of Florida.

In a head-to-head matchup, Trump leads Clinton by a margin of 42 percent to 39 percent in Florida, erasing the Democrat’s eight-point lead in June, according to the poll conducted by Quinnipiac University. Trump also leads by a margin of 41 percent to 36 percent when Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein are added to the mix.

Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, said one factor could be the recent controversy surrounding Clinton’s use of a private email server and handling of classified information while she served as secretary of state. The Department of Justice decided against prosecuting Clinton, but FBI Director James Comey publicly criticized her for being “extremely careless.”

“While there is no definite link between Clinton’s drop in Florida and the U.S. Justice Department decision not to prosecute her for her handling of e-mails, she has lost ground to Trump on questions which measure moral standards and honesty,” Brown said in comments accompanying the poll results.

Trump’s lead in the head-to-head matchup is within the poll’s 3.1 percentage-point margin of error.

Clinton led in Florida by a margin of 47 percent to 39 percent in a Quinnipiac poll released June 21. One of the biggest shifts in the new survey involves independent voters, who favored Clinton by nine percentage points in the June poll. The poll released Wednesday indicated that Trump leads among independents by a margin of 43 percent to 30 percent.

Overall, however, the new poll again reflected deep divisions among voters based on race, gender and age. Trump dominates among white voters, men and older Floridians. Clinton holds big leads among non-white voters, women and younger people.

Brown said Trump, who has angered many Hispanics with his stances on immigration issues, could have a difficult time winning in the diverse state if he does not improve his numbers among non-white voters.

“In Florida, Donald Trump is getting only 21 percent of the non-white vote,” Brown said. “Although he is winning among white voters, who are mainly Republican, victory in Florida will be a very difficult lift for him if he can’t do better among non-white voters.”

Nevertheless, the poll indicates Trump has momentum as Republicans prepare to gather next week in Cleveland for the GOP national convention. Quinnipiac also released poll results Wednesday showing the candidates tied in Ohio and Trump leading by two points in Pennsylvania, both of which also are closely watched swing states.

“Donald Trump enters the Republican convention on a small roll in the three most important swing states in the country,” Brown said. “He has wiped out Hillary Clinton’s lead in Florida; is on the upside of too-close to call races in Florida and Pennsylvania and is locked in a dead heat in Ohio.”

The Connecticut-based Quinnipiac frequently conducts polls in Florida and other states.

by Jim Saunders, The News Service of Florida

Comments

26 Responses to “Poll: Trump Edging Hillary In Florida”

  1. mike on July 18th, 2016 3:44 pm

    @Lee: what kinda “family man” leaves wife bcuz she’s too old? The rich kind! LOL! :D Seriouly tho, like many other points brought up about Trump, this one has no bearing on how good a Prez he would be. Like I said, don’t worry, she can’t lose! :D We’ll be gunless & overrun in no time! Hey, maybe we’ll be getting some of those minarettes that the singing comes from! :D

  2. mike on July 18th, 2016 3:20 pm

    @Lee: on your Benghazi point, I think the US gov on a whole was responsible. Including the people at the embassy at the time. If you don’t like the security situation @ a place, get on the next flight outta there. I feel sorry 4 the soldiers that did not have that option, but maybe if there had been an exodus of state dept employees things would have went different. To her (dis?)credit, Hilly took responsibility. lf you are going to have a US outpost in a country which includes people that hate America, it’s people, or it’s foreign policy, it MUST be a US military base that just happens to house a US embassy. Anything less is just stupid. It is sad that people had to die because of the failure to realize this. :(

  3. Bob's Brother on July 18th, 2016 1:33 pm

    As a young lawyer, Hillary represented a man accused of raping a 12 year old girl. She volunteered for the job. When she got her client off on a technicality, she laughed about it and said that she knew he was guilty. She was fired from the Watergate investigation for stealing/removing pertainant files. Read up on the Rose Law firm and Mena Arkansas. This woman has been corrupt and crooked all of her adult life.
    The forces attempting to derail Trump have shown themselves for what they really are. Crooked. Want continued corruption in Washington? Vote Hillary.

  4. John on July 18th, 2016 6:48 am

    Being a conservative christian, I don’t particularly care for either candidate, I feel like I’m voting for a cobra or a viber and voting for someone in the libertarian party would do better than Trump or Hillary, but that would most certainly assure Hillary the election, so I have decided to vote for Trump the lesser of the venomous. Let me tell you something folks Hillery is going to hurt all of us even you Democrats. You will lose freedoms under her watch her watch.

  5. Lee on July 17th, 2016 10:45 pm

    @Lee: Don’t you find it odd that a man who contributed to Hillary is now running against her? Do you think a good businessman is one who fails to pay people for the work they did for him? Exactly how may bankruptcies does it take to make a good businessman? What kind of “family man” leaves his wife because “she was too old” and makes sexist remarks about the physical attributes of other women??? In what context would it be appropriate to say you would round people of a particular religion or ethnicity up and extricate them from this country (even though doing so would be in direct opposition to the laws of this country)? What brand of moron really believes any wall is going to be built or that we have the power to have another country pay for it??? Trump’s reasoning and ego are directly disproportionate to one another. He’s a loose canon.

  6. mike on July 17th, 2016 4:07 pm

    @Lee: Con man!?! Oh yeah, Trump tricked his way into the nomination! Hocus pocus! LOL! :D Details? And what plans has Hilly mapped out for us? As far as Putin & Kim Duk Bill, Trump’s personal opinion of them has no bearing on how good a Prez he would be, I don’t think he would be turning us all Communist. Note: successful businessmen have been Prez for a long time, so that is not really a factor, still, Trump would make a WAY better Prez than Hilly, just IMO. :)

  7. mike on July 17th, 2016 3:19 pm

    @Lee: Hilly supports a forced buy back program, so you can quit playing dumb. She is crooked, has used her sos position to milk foreign governments for cash. Even Obama said she will say anything to get elected. A Secret Service guy has documented her temper tantrums, someone like that with their finger on the button is downright scarey. As I said, she can’t lose, don’t worry. Americans don’t want change or anything fixed, they want the checks to keep coming & the foodstamp cards to keep getting refilled. As far as limited power, you forget the executive order Obama issued giving Presidents the exact opposite, unlimited power. How can anyone say Trump hates women & is a bigot? He is a family man & hires women & minorities in his businesses all the time. No, he can’t get elected, but so what? The Constitution & due process have been run over roughshod & the real America is gone for good anyway. :D

  8. Lee on July 16th, 2016 1:31 pm

    To Bill: The GOP was responsible for not allotting more funding for security at the embassies.

    To Mike: Who is taking your guns?

    Trump is a con man, a racist and a bigot. He makes lots of statements about what he’s GOING to do, but has given no real details about how to accomplish any of it. In fact, he sounds as if he doesn’t realize that he will not be elected as a dictator, but as a president with limited powers. He admires the leaders of Russia and North Korea??? If that’s the kind of “change” some folks want, heaven help us all!

  9. mike on July 15th, 2016 6:04 pm

    @ppd: you should read some of what secret service guys have wrote in their books about working with Hilly, you might not think she is so pious! :D

  10. Sue on July 15th, 2016 5:32 pm

    We will see how smart Mr.Trump really is when it comes time for him to debate Mrs.Hillary when they go head to head. I fear from the statements he has made in the past he may be at least a little intellectually challenged about how government works in this country. When they ask the tough questions will he be able to actually tell the American people in detail live on tv with substance how he plans to accomplish his goals that he has promised if he is so smart at making deals. We will see if he has the smarts as he claims to have come debate time….At least Hillary released her tax records, Something that I would really expect any nominee to do on good faith.

  11. pdd on July 15th, 2016 10:44 am

    Trump is Crooked and a Liar. He also hates women, minorities and people of faith. How could we elect someone who hates people he would be representing? Please really listen to Trump when he speaks with an open heart and I too will believe you will see he is really not a Christian. I know it is hard for many to really see him for what he is…

  12. Willis on July 15th, 2016 8:01 am

    Lord help us all with these 2 candidates.

    But I’m climbing on the same bandwagon that elected Mr. Obama.

    CHANGE!!!!!

    No more Billary for me.

  13. c.w. on July 15th, 2016 5:25 am

    killary can get on her broom, go pick up ginsberg, and fly away. No vote for killary ever.

  14. James Broel on July 15th, 2016 2:19 am

    I am just glad I am not the only person who won’t vote for Trump. Hillary isn’t perfect either nor is Trump. But the lesser of the two evils that gets my vote sure is not Trump.

  15. Facetious Bob on July 14th, 2016 10:39 pm

    Does anybody remember Mrs. Clinton stating she was named for famous New Zealander Sir Edmund Hillary? Of course, she was born 10/26/47. The mountaineer did not become famous until 05/29/53. Sort of like President Obama receiving the Nobel Peace Prize before he had done anything in world politics. Just a thought.

  16. Bill on July 14th, 2016 7:38 pm

    I can’t believe anybody would vote for someone would for someone who let four Americans die because she would not send help, sent out classified doc., lied to their family’s, lied to the American people,take millions from foreign goverment .
    I mean that could have been your husband, son, one of your family members.
    What happen to real Americans.
    GOD HELP US

  17. MIKE HONCHO on July 14th, 2016 6:49 pm

    If sheep could vote they’d pick the one who feeds them,even if its’ the same person who will slaughter them later.
    To many people who find it the norm to live off handouts from the government and take what you have. they will all vote for killary.Take our country back vote TRUMP.

  18. mike on July 14th, 2016 1:58 pm

    ‘t be a long ride, lol! :D

  19. mike on July 14th, 2016 1:56 pm

    it is simple math people: with minorities making up around a third of the population & all voting 4 Hilly, & the rest divided between the 2, Hilly can’t lose! She was not even a mediocre sos & with what she has now gotten away with, it is no wonder she is so smug! if they debate, she will be laughing in his face! don’t even kid yrself, a mountain of cash that come from the real power is behind her. taking our guns & the recent movement of UN military armament into the country is something i’d like to bring up, but it is kinda off topic, so i won’t. don’t worry, she is in there, the bottle & swaddling clothes will continue. there is a fema camp @ eglin, so it won

  20. chris in brandon on July 14th, 2016 12:47 pm

    Crooked Clinton??? Crooked Trump too!!!

  21. CarneySCV on July 14th, 2016 12:34 pm

    Time to try different approach…. Vote trump

  22. Grandma on July 14th, 2016 10:34 am

    I’m very concerned about non-citizens voting in an election for the president of a country of which they are not a citizen. We need very strict, precise procedures to determine citizenship of ALL who come to vote or order a mail-in ballot. We received a mail ballot for our son who has not lived in Escambia County in 11 years! It is so slack that it makes me wonder if our vote really matters at all. If its predetermined, why bother with procedures. Just a thought.

  23. Molino, FL resident on July 14th, 2016 9:08 am

    Good News. I’m for Trump. Crooked Hillary is true to her name. The latest scandal….The FBI not moving forward with her lying on the e-mails is disgusting.

  24. Knat61 on July 14th, 2016 8:30 am

    Thank Goodness Trump is leading, I can’t believe anyone would seriously vote for Hillary Clinton anyhow..!!!

  25. Kate on July 14th, 2016 8:07 am

    Scary!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  26. chris in brandon on July 14th, 2016 5:44 am

    It’s disturbing to think that people would vote for a candidate who’s campaign is built on hate.

Written by William Reynolds · Filed Under News