Chance Of Showers Tonight
June 27, 2016
Pictured: Dark clouds from an approaching storm meet the sunset in Walnut Hill Sunday night. NorthEscambia.com photo, click to enlarge.
Here is your official North Escambia are forecast:
Tonight: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Tuesday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 90. West wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Tuesday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Wednesday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 89. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph.
Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Thursday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 71. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 71. Southwest wind around 5 mph.
Saturday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 92.
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 75.
Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 93.
Sunday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 75.
Independence Day: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 93.
Column: Is The Local Area Heading For Another Housing Bubble?
June 27, 2016
by Phyllis K. Pooley
Back in 2005, the National Association of Realtors produced the report “Home Price Analysis for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent” in which the author found the local metropolitan housing market to be in “excellent shape” with potential for significant equity gains.
The report analyzed median mortgage servicing costs and median incomes ratio and found that for Escambia and Santa Rosa counties, “This ratio is at a very manageable level. It implies no widespread financial overstretching to purchase a home in the region. Any respectable gains in the local job market could translate into further home price gains.”
Other significant findings in the report included that price declines in the local market were unlikely and the local market would experience a 5 percent decline only under extremely unlikely scenarios of much higher mortgage rates.
Sadly, those words were not prophetic. The quarterly House Price Index generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis clearly shows that Pensacola shared in the pain of the housing market collapse.
The index includes all transactions in an area using both sales prices and appraisals. Between the height of the market in the fourth quarter of 2006 to its lowest point in the second quarter of 2012, house prices fell 29.4 percent in the Pensacola area.
In addition to clearly showing the run-up in prices that began in 2003, the index also shows that the area is just now recovering to 2005 price levels. While prices have rebounded 17.5 percent from their lowest point as of the last quarter of 2015, as illustrated by the trend line, they are still below what might be expected if the bubble had not happened.
Now, just 10 years removed from the height of the housing bubble, there are whispers that another bubble is forming. Housing prices in many areas are once again rising at rates faster than average wage growth, credit conditions are loosening with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac allowing only 3 percent down payments, and housing supplies are tightening. Are we headed for a repeat of the last disaster?
To answer this question, one first needs a definition of “housing bubble.” It’s typically defined as a deviation of the market price from the fundamental value of the house.
Secondly, one needs to be able to tell if this deviation is occurring. This would seem to be a straightforward task. However, like many things in the economic world, there is more than one way to analyze the question, and experts don’t always agree on what these analyses show.
For example, one researcher might point to home prices increasing at a higher rate than inflation, coupled with a sharp divergence between home prices and rental prices, as an indication that homes are overpriced. Another will examine the ratio between housing price and income and, having noted that it is higher than historical norms, might conclude that there is a price bubble. Still another researcher will look at mortgage-servicing costs as related to income, and argue that if these are within manageable levels, there is no bubble.
The current consensus amongst experts seem to be that while housing prices are climbing, they are doing so because new houses are not being built to increase the supply. Identified as a major indicator of the prior bubble, new homes were being built at a furious pace even as prices continued to climb. Under normal economic conditions, prices tend to fall when supply grows. When that does not occur, it suggests that other forces are in play to support the higher price.
While housing starts are not readily available for metro areas, a proxy for specific new home construction statistics is employment in the construction industry itself. By comparing home prices to the number of construction workers, one can see how these forces might interact.
The data show construction employment at its height during the price bubble and lagging behind prices ever since. This fact suggests that experts may be correct in their view that conditions are still operating in a traditional fashion and a lack of housing supply is supporting home prices at present levels rather than the factors that generate bubbles. Building permit data from the U.S. Census Bureau tends to support this notion as well – at the height of the bubble in 2006 the Pensacola area saw 2,488 permits issued covering 3,126 housing units. By 2012, the number had dropped to 1,466 permits covering only 1,594 units – or half the planned construction.
The most recent data does show housing starts and construction employment on the increase. It will be interesting to watch how these trends play out in the coming months.
Phyllis K. Pooley serves as director of special projects with the University of West Florida Office of Economic Development and Engagement in Pensacola.
Greatest Show On Earth: Circus Train Passes Through Escambia County
June 27, 2016
The “Blue Unit” of the Ringling Bros. and Barnum & Bailey circus trains passed through Escambia County Sunday morning, moving from South Florida to California. The circus has two trains, the red and the blue, that criss-cross the county. Photos by Larry Seale for NorthEscambia.com, click to enlarge.
Tennessee Beats Pensacola 3-0
June 27, 2016
The Pensacola Blue Wahoos bats cooled down against the Tennessee Smokies starting pitcher Paul Blackburn.
Blackburn shut down the Pensacola lineup allowing just two hits in six scoreless innings, walking three and striking out five as the Smokies shut out the Blue Wahoos, 3-0, Sunday at Smokies Park.
Blackburn improved to 5-2 with a 2.35 ERA this year.
The only Pensacola hitters to earn hits in the game were shortstop Alex Blandino (1-4), center fielder Jeff Gelalich (1-3 with walk) and Phillip Ervin (1-3 with walk). They are the top three hitters in the order and Pensacola was 3-28 for the game.
Ervin singled on a bunt back to the pitcher and then stole his 22nd base of the year, which is tied for fifth in the Southern League.
The Blue Wahoos are now 2-2 in the second half and 43-31 overall.
Pensacola starting pitcher Jackson Stephens did work 5.1 innings but gave up three runs on seven hits and five walks, while striking out three. He dropped to 5-6 with a 3.19 earned-run average. James Farris relieved Blackburn and threw two scoreless innings and struck out four. The game was closed by Smokies closer Juan Paniagua, who walked one in one inning and earned his fourth save this season.
In the third inning, Tennessee second baseman Ian Happ doubled in center fielder Jacob Hannemann to put the Smokies up, 1-0.
Tennessee left fielder Trey Martin then laid down a squeeze but that scored right fielder Billy McKinney to put the Smokies ahead, 2-0.
The lead extended to, 3-0, over Pensacola when Tennessee catcher Victor Caratini walked to lead off the sixth inning. Caratini then scored on shortstop Daniel Lockhart’s ground ball single to right field.
Pensacola relievers Jacob Ehret, and Evan Mitchell pitched 2.2 innings of scoreless relief giving up one hit and striking out three. Tennessee pitchers combined to retire 12 Pensacola hitters in a row between the fourth and eighth innings.
Voters Receive New ID Cards
June 27, 2016
Voters in Escambia County were recently mailed a new voter information card from the office of David Stafford, Escambia County Supervisor of Elections.
Voters are strongly encouraged to review their new cards carefully, particularly their party affiliation and polling location. Voters should contact the elections office immediately with any necessary updates.
The new cards have green text making identification of the most current card simpler. The updated card reflects Escambia County’s State Senate District number change to District 1.
Voter information cards are NOT required when voting; Florida requires approved photo and signature ID when voting in person.
First Baptist Of Bratt Honored For Operation Christmas Child Collections
June 27, 2016
Christmas is still several months away, but Christmas was on the mind of church members Sunday at the First Baptist Church of Bratt.
The church has served for the past five years as a collection point for Operation Christmas Child, which provides simple, gift-filled shoe boxes that bring Christmas joy and evangelistic materials to children in countries across the globe.
Sunday, Bethany Daily, Northwest Florida area coordinator for Operation Christmas Child, gave special recognition to Tim Hawsey and Michelle McKinley at the church. Over 2,300 boxes have been collected by the First Baptist Church of Bratt since 2010.
Submitted photos for NorthEscambia.com, click to enlarge.
Hellon Belle Pierce
June 27, 2016
Our hearts rest easy knowing they are together again with the Lord.
Hellon Pierce passed away early on the morning of June 24, 2016, to be with the Lord and Seldon, her husband of 65 years. She was a woman of tremendous grace, and leaves behind a void her family will find difficult to fill.
In a letter Seldon wrote to Hellon on their 50th Wedding Anniversary, he quoted the scripture, “Who can find a virtuous woman? For her price is far above rubies. The heart of her husband doth safely trust in her.” (Proverbs 31). Hellon, indeed, was an exemplary example of a Christian wife, mother, and friend. Seldon ends the letter by writing, “The past five decades have been wonderful having you as my best friend, my lover, and my steadfast companion. Let’s go for another decade and finish the game of life together…come with me. The best is yet to come.”
Visitation will be held Thursday, June 30, 2016, at Walnut Avenue Missionary Baptist Church beginning at 10 a.m. with the funeral service to follow at 11 a.m. with Pastor Bill Adams officiating.
Interment will follow at Bayview Memorial Park Cemetery.
Faith Chapel Funeral Home North is in charge of arrangements.
Gerald Byrd
June 27, 2016
Gerald Byrd, age 55, died unexpectedly on Saturday, June 25, 2016, at his family home with the love of his life beside him.
Gerald is survived by his wife of 35 years, Dollie Byrd of Cantonment; his children, George Sundberg of Oklahoma City, OK, Terry Stacey of Cantonment, Katherine Sundberg of Seminole, AL, and Kevin Byrd of Pensacola; as well as many other family members and a very special grandson, Devin Creamer.
He was preceded in death by his mother, Lillian Ard.
A memorial service is scheduled for friends and family on Thursday, June 30, 2016, at 6 p.m. at The First Baptist Church of Cottage Hill, 230 Williams Ditch Road in Cantonment, with dinner to follow at 7 p.m.
All are welcome to attend and celebrate Gerald’s life. The family would like to thank everyone for the wonderful prayers and support you have provided them in their time of need.
In lieu of flowers, donations can be made to the family.
Loula Jane Cooper Hoffman
June 27, 2016
Jane, affectionately known as “Nana”, always had an exuberant smile for all she met and we are certain she was smiling brightly as she greeted her Lord and Savior Jesus Christ, a host of angels, and her family and friends as she entered Heaven’s Gate on Thursday, June 23, 2016.
Jane was born and raised in Water Valley, Mississippi. She was the second child of Virgil Malcolm “Tide” and Ila Cooper. Her parents, step-mother Susie Cooper, sisters Mary Smith and Jeanie Hinson, grandson Willie McCormick, son-in-law Walter Zittel, and her loving husband, James David Hoffman, preceded her into eternal life.
Jane married the love of her life, James David Hoffman, of Taylor, Mississippi, at the early age of 16. They were a happy couple and spent the first 20 years of their married life in the Navy; he as an enlisted Navy man and she as a Navy wife. Jane and Dave were a great couple and made friends easily wherever they moved. They were always involved with church life and serving God in every way possible. They were members of Ensley United Methodist Church in their early years living in Pensacola, and then as members of Gonzalez Baptist Church.
She is survived by her children, Lyn Hoffman Zittel of Pensacola; Jim (Mary) Hoffman of Virginia Beach, VA; Jeff (Robyn) Hoffman; Janet (Dennis) Foster; and K.C. (Susanne) Fehl, all of the Pensacola area. She is also survived by her grandchildren, Bert (Felicia) Wynne, Emily and Savannah Price, Rebecca (Josh) MacDonald, Meagan and Matthew Hoffman, Jared and Trevor Hoffman, Kim Zurbay, Charles McCormick, and Kenny Paul (Melana) Fehl; and her two great-granddaughters, Abigail and Allison Wynne. She also leaves her brother, Rev. Virgil (Amy) Cooper of Birmingham, AL; sister-in-law Marilyn Hoffman of Oxford, MS; her aunts, Iva Brown and Edna Hargrove; and a multitude of nieces, nephews, and friends.
Jane loved to be in her kitchen cooking, baking, and canning. She especially loved to cook fried chicken for her “boys” and chicken salad for her “girls.” Her special lemon pound cake was cherished by all and her “icy-sweet pickles” were a special treat and everyone considered themselves “lucky” if she gave them a jar to take home! As part of Jane’s Christian giving, she prepared meals for many years for the church members at the Chapel on the Hill in Roosevelt Roads, Puerto Rico and at Gonzalez Baptist Church. Seeing people enjoy her delicious food gave her great pleasure.
After Nana retired from J.C. Penney, she kept many children in her “at-home” day-care for a number of years. Those children are now grown, many with children of their own, and they have a special place in their hearts for the loving and generous woman who treated them like her own children.
A special thank you is extended to Jane’s long-time friend, Mrs. Laurel Ellis who spent countless hours visiting with and transporting our Nana to dialysis three days a week for the past several years. Our boundless gratitude is expressed to this selfless lady who gave Jane her time, energy, joy and friendship.
Visitation will be Tuesday, June 28, 2016, from 5 p.m. until 7 p.m. at Faith Chapel North in Cantonment.
Funeral services will be held Wednesday, June 29, 2016, at 10:30 a.m. at Faith Chapel North.
Burial will follow at Barrancas National Cemetery.
“Her children arise and call her blessed … many women do noble things but you surpass them all … a woman who fears the Lord is to be praised. Honor her for all that her hands have done, and let her works bring her praise at the city gate.” Proverbs 31: 28-31.
Ken “Rabbit” Simpson
June 27, 2016
Ken “Rabbit” Simpson, age 77 from Milton, passed away June 24th after a short battle with melanoma cancer.
He retired from Monsanto after 34 years of exemplary service as a maintenance mechanic. His passion was drag racing. As an avid driver of the sport, he was recognized and awarded numerous accolades in various races as one of the elite professionals in the sport. He was a three time world record holder with the International Hot Rod Association(IHRA). Local friends remember his car, the “Lil General”, and the crazy fun that Daddy Rabbit sparked wherever he would go. Recently, Rabbit enjoyed spending time eating out with friends and gambling at his favorite casinos.
Rabbit is survived by his two daughters Tammy (Don) Hierholzer and Jill (Kerry) Coker along with grandchildren. He will be missed by many friends, especially Dickie Davis and Donald Jo who comforted him during his final days.
Funeral services will be held on Tuesday, June 28 at Faith Chapel North, Hwy 29, Cantonment. Visitation will start at 11 a.m. with service at noon. The burial will follow at Pensacola Memorial Gardens next to Five Flags Speedway, so that Rabbit can be close to where his passion lies.