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Republican Turnout, Wave Overwhelmed Crist
November 6, 2014
Demoats’ plans to take down Republican Gov. Rick Scott — a hated figure on the left — were relatively straightforward: Run charismatic former Gov. Charlie Crist, and fire up the turnout machine that helped President Barack Obama carry the state twice.
On Tuesday, those plans fell apart, as a robust ground game from Republicans, Scott’s massive financial edge and the GOP wave that swept the nation propelled Scott to a second term by a narrow margin. Unofficial results showed Scott carrying about 48.2 percent of the vote, with Crist picking up almost 47.1 percent.
By the day after the election, Crist’s allies were saying what many Democrats across the country were saying: Given Obama’s unpopularity and voters’ sour mood, the former Republican Crist never stood much of a chance.
Steve Geller, a former Senate minority leader and close ally of Crist whose friendship dates back to their college days at Florida State University, said Crist was a victim of the national Republican wave.
“Gov. Scott is fortunate,” Geller said. “He has good timing. There have been two Republican wave elections in the past 15 years and he ran during both of them and won narrow victories both times.”
The national trends certainly helped Scott, said Rick Wilson, a Republican political consultant, but only after the GOP and its allies laid the groundwork for a victory.
“If the campaign hadn’t built the ship and raised the sail, that last little bit of wind wouldn’t have moved us,” said Wilson, who worked with an independent group supporting Scott.
Neither Scott nor Crist held any public events Wednesday, the day after the most expensive and perhaps the most personal governor’s race in Florida history. Crist did make calls to thank supporters and his staff, according to an aide. Scott was expected to hold a transition press conference in the coming days.
But the analysis of the 2014 election was already underway in some corners, with both parties trying to figure out what worked and what didn’t Tuesday night — and whether there are any lessons to be learned.
One of the most surprising parts of the election, given the Democrats’ repeated emphasis on turning out voters over the last six years, might have been how poorly they did. Six of the 10 counties with the lowest turnout Tuesday went for Crist, including counties like Miami-Dade (40.7 percent), Broward (44.45 percent) and Palm Beach (49.1 percent) — the three counties where Crist scored his largest margins in terms of votes.
Crist did win the six counties with the most votes — including those three — by a combined 447,190 votes. But Scott racked up huge margins in small- and medium-sized counties across the state, offsetting Crist’s advantages in urban core districts with wins almost everywhere else. Scott carried 54 counties by an average of 26 percent; Crist carried 13 by an average of 16.9 percent.
“That’s how Republicans have often won statewide elections since the 1990s,” said Susan MacManus, a political-science professor at the University of South Florida.
While Crist carried the largest cities in the state, Scott often carried the suburbs around them. Scott did well in non-urban counties in the I-4 corridor and crushed Crist in Duval County, a critical trove of votes for the GOP. Scott won 56.7 percent of the two-party vote in that county — home to Jacksonville — more than the Republican candidates’ edge in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections and Scott’s own advantage in 2010.
That, too, might have had something to do with Obama, Wilson said.
“Crist’s flavor of pro-Obama cheerleading is enormously unpopular in this state except for … the urban counties. He can’t sell that outside of his base,” Wilson said.
Libertarian Adrian Wyllie — who carried almost 3.8 percent of vote — also could have played a spoiler role. While Wyllie was expected to pull voters away from Scott, and did perform well in counties won by the incumbent, MacManus said exit polls showed much of his support coming from younger voters who were expected to side with Crist.
“He ended up hurting Crist more than Scott,” she said.
Wilson also said Democrats seemed not to realize that Republicans have caught up to them on voting technology, so that the advantage Democrats perceive themselves to have is not as large as they believe.
“We realized that the technology is politically ambiguous,” he said. “It doesn’t matter who’s using it.”
And, of course, Scott, an allied committee and the Republican Party of Florida poured tens of millions of dollars into bashing Crist — particularly early, as the Democrat was still working to raise money — defining Crist and possibly dampening enthusiasm for the governor among Democrats. The gulf between the two only widened when Scott poured $12.8 million of his and his wife’s fortune into the Republican Party of Florida in October.
Combined with everything else, it was just too much.
“It’s always difficult to run when you’re outspent two-to-one,” Geller said. “I think in a normal election (Crist) would have overcome that. There was a national Republican wave that carried a lot of people with it.”
by Brandon Larrabee, The News Service of Florida
Comments
14 Responses to “Republican Turnout, Wave Overwhelmed Crist”
Want to start your day off with a laugh?
Read below…
Should have been in yesterdays comics…imo
Actually, everybody loves President Obama, just many disagree with his policies. They want him to be more liberal or more conservative, more black or more white in his thinking, more hawkish or more dovish, more aggressive or more compliant, more something else.
I just want him to be more me.
David for perfection
I voted anti Charlie because if he can’t commit to a party he can’t commit to the voters who elect him.
Actually, everybody loves President Obama, just many disagree with his policies. They want him to be more liberal or more conservative, more black or more white in his thinking, more hawkish or more dovish, more aggressive or more compliant, more something else.
I just want him to be more me.
David for perfection
crazy….
On October 17, 2013, President Obama said: “You don’t like a particular policy or a particular president? Then argue for your position. Go out there and win an election. Push to change it. But don’t break it. Don’t break what our predecessors spent over two centuries building. That’s not being faithful to what this country’s about.”
Obama’s threat to carry out a unilateral amnesty for millions of illegal aliens threatens the system that he claimed to defend just over a year ago. And he is well aware of that.
That’s what America did Mr. Coe. America won an election, yet…POTUS pushes his agenda down the throats of the American people…Practice what you preach Mr. president.
Thank goodness there are voters that opposed the Obama Ticket, Obama Policies, Obama Agenda of Race Baiting, War on Women(See Bill Clinton Administration both as POTUS and GOV of Arkansas). Obama War on Middle Class Americans. Not GOP…just an American.
Thank goodness Fl. still has enough voters in the suburbs and rural areas (tax payers) to defeat the voters in the big cities (tax takers). Sorry Charlie
Splitting hairs but ….
Also, no one claim the conservative rhetoric…there are GOP members that mirror the liberal progressive left leaning Democrat Party. Therefore, your statement concerning “rhetoric” is false. Call it as it is…Progressive left leaning Democrat Party the the Moderate fence straddling Republican Party, just to set the record straight…the comment below is fact. Whether for 10 days or for 134 days or for six months/two years.
Question: Are 60 members in the Senate a filibuster proof majority?
Obamacare is the product of a brief moment of total Democratic dominance in Washington. Key to that dominance was a 60-seat, filibuster-proof Senate majority. It wasn’t a sure bet for Democrats; despite victories in 2008, the party’s hopes for that majority depended on the outcome of a contested race in Minnesota. After a controversial recount, Al Franken became the 60th Democratic senator on July 7, 2009, giving Democrats an unassailable edge.
But that majority disappeared just 49 days later when, on August 25, 2009, Massachusetts Democratic Sen. Ted Kennedy died. State law called for a special election to fill the empty seat. That would have taken months, and as public opposition to Obamacare grew, Democrats became increasingly anxious to pass the bill as quickly as possible. Luckily for them, Democrats in the Massachusetts legislature came to the rescue, changing the law to allow the immediate appointment of Democrat Paul Kirk. Kirk was sworn in on September 24, 2009, giving Democrats 60 votes once more.
Details…i hate details.
@Dwight Schrut,
In reality, despite you claiming it, Dems never really had a Super Majority. It wasn’t until July/August for the Minnesota Senate race to be decided and about the same time Sen Franken took office, Sen Ted Kennedy was dying and not active.
Sen Joe Lieberman , the Independent Democrat, what ever that meant, was lobbying with Republicans.
After Sen Kennedy died, Scott Brown, Republican, won the Mass election for his Senate seat in, I think, Sept 2009.
So even though the Conservative rhetoric claims Dems had a Super Majority for 2008 to 2010, it wasn’t the case.
Intereresting question asked by a poster…
Here it is:
on November 6th, 2014 7:41 am
I’m just wondering what the Republicans excuses will be now that they do not have any.
Let’s flip that….what excuses do the Democrats have?
Democrat President..Democrat Senate…Democrat House from 2008-2010…
Reason nothing has been done on a national level…his first name is Harry…his last name starts with an R.
Are you talking local? National? State?
Pick one! And explain
I’ll hang up and listen to your reply…
“Given Obama’s unpopularity and voters’ sour mood, the former Republican Crist never stood much of a chance.”
I disagree with that assessment. How can that be true when the percentages were so very close? That’s just making excuses as if there was nothing Mr.Crist could do to stop the “wave”. If he would have had more turnout he might have pulled it off. I actually expected Mr.Crist to win and was suprised when he didn’t. He was ahead in the polls a few days before the election.
I’m just wondering what the Republicans excuses will be now that they do not have any.
My vote against Charlie had nothing to do with Obama, I Hated Charlie Christ the first time, AND sure DID NOT WANT HIM AGAIN!
Which party nominated him this time anyway?
The democrats are calling it a republican wave. Maybe it was the voters letting the democrats know what a sorry job they have done. Anyway, flip flop charlie lost.