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Poll Shows Florida Governor’s Race Too Close To Call
September 25, 2014
Less than two months before Election Day, Florida voters are split between their top two choices for governor, but they agree on one thing — neither candidate is a perfect fit.
That’s according to a poll by Quinnipiac University released Wednesday. The survey found that Republican Gov. Rick Scott has a slight edge over Democrat Charlie Crist but, because that two-point lead falls within the margin of error, the contest is too close to call.
“The race is likely to be won by the candidate who’s able to convince voters that he is the least objectionable,” Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, told reporters.
The poll found that 44 percent of likely voters support Scott, while 42 percent back Crist and 8 percent support Libertarian Adrian Wyllie.
The poll also found that 17 percent of voters might change their minds, further proof that the race is a toss-up just a week before absentee ballots go in the mail and a month before early voting begins.
With the support of 83 percent of Democrats queried in the survey, Crist — the one-time Republican governor who left the GOP in 2010 in a failed bid for the U.S. Senate as an independent — appears to have solidified support from his new party. Similarly, 80 percent of Republicans favored Scott.
The key to the November election rests with independent voters and Wyllie supporters, Brown said. The level of support in the poll for the relatively unknown Wyllie, whose campaign finances are eclipsed by the war chests amassed by Scott and Crist, might not pan out at the ballot box, according to Brown.
“The big question is, will those who tell us today that they’re going to vote for Mr. Wyllie actually vote for Mr. Wyllie? And if they don’t vote for Mr. Wyllie, will they stay at home, or will they vote for one of the two major party candidates? That’s the $64,000 question,” he said.
Third-party candidates’ popularity tends to fade closer to the election, Brown said.
“Eight percent isn’t chopped liver, but at this point it doesn’t look like Mr. Wyllie’s competitive to win. But his voters could make the winner,” he said.
The survey comes after months of mudslinging on the air by Scott’s campaign and his backers, who have spent more than $30 million on television ads, mostly bashing Crist. Crist and his supporters have spent at least another $10 million, including ads attacking his opponent.
The negative campaigning appears to have paid off for Scott, at least in part. Crist’s popularity has dropped since the ads started airing, according to earlier Quinnipiac polls. But Brown cautioned against comparing Wednesday’s results with previous surveys because the most-recent poll was conducted of likely voters, while the earlier polls were conducted of registered voters, an important distinction.
Voters gave both Scott and Crist low marks on character. By a 49-37 percent margin, voters said Crist is not honest and trustworthy. Fifty-one percent of respondents said that Scott is not honest and trustworthy. Voters were split 46-45 percent on whether Crist cares about their needs and problems, while only 42 percent said they think Scott has those cares.
“Mr. Scott and Mr. Crist are both looked at, meehhhh, by voters in a less than complimentary way,” Brown said, shrugging. “Fewer than four in ten voters think either man is honest and trustworthy. That’s not unheard of, but it is unusual.”
Quinnipiac, which frequently conducts polls in Florida and other states, surveyed 1 likely Florida voters from Sept. 17 to Sept. 22. The poll has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac results mirror other recent polls that showed Scott closing a gap in the race or taking a narrow lead. But Democratic pollster Steven Vancore said the Quinnipiac University survey is flawed.
Thirty-two percent of the voters who participated in the poll identified themselves as Republican, 30 percent as Democrats, and 31 percent as belonging to neither major party.
But those party affiliations don’t reflect actual turnout in the last two gubernatorial elections, Vancore said. In 2010, 46 percent of voters who cast ballots were Republicans, 38 percent were Democrats and 16 percent belonged to either minor parties or no party at all.
Republican voters are expected to edge out Democrats in November by at least four percentage points, while independents are predicted to comprise — at most — about 22 percent of the total turnout, Vancore said.
“They slightly under-sampled Republicans and they dramatically over-sampled (no-party affiliation) voters,” Vancore said.
by Dara Kim and Jim Saunders, The News Service of Florida
Comments
10 Responses to “Poll Shows Florida Governor’s Race Too Close To Call”
Well, I never said he wasn’t a flip flopped. However, I’m sure his mind didn’t change overnight. However, you didn’t address any of the facts about Scott I mentioned previously. Where are those 700,000 jobs on top of normal increase in the workforce that Scott promised? It won’t matter, I’m sure this won’t sway your opinion and that’s ok. Your concern seems legitamate enough. Our state is behind the curve on many issues. I just don’t believe that Scott has Florida’s best interest in mind.
I used to be a Dem. then Rep. now Ind.,been for about 15 yrs now. Both political parties disgust me.. As a matter of fact politics in general disgust me. Our elected representatives should not have any party agendas, just what’s best for this Country. I firmly believe Rick Scott’s agenda is not in the best of working people in this State. So I will not be voting for Scott , matter of fact may not even vote at all..
“Call Crist a flip flopper all you want. As if you have never changed your mind about anything, lol.”-Reality Check
Yes, it is true that we all change our minds from time to time about a FEW things, but not EVERYTHING. Your morals, the values in which you live your life on, don’t just change over night.
I’d advise you to Google “Charlie Crist Debating with Himself” and see the video that shows Crist’s old views, and what he now says.
For instance, Crist said,”I’m pro-life. I’m pro-gun. I’m pro-family. And I’m pro-business.”
Let’s focus on the comment “I’m pro-life.” This issue is more than just a republican or democrat issue. This issue is a morality issue. If you truly believe in your morals, they won’t change overnight. If your in politics for a personal gain, then they will change overnight. Charlie Crist switches views to appeal to a certain voter group, here particularly women and liberals.
Crist was a Republican, who governed as a liberal, but regardless claimed to be a strong member of the GOP. He then knew that as a Republican he could not defeat Marco Rubio in the 2010 Primary for the US Senate sett, so he changed to an Independent to be a shoe in for the General Election, then llost. Since that didn’t work out for him, he changed to a Democrat in order to run against Rick Scott in the general election.
Please tell me how that’s not a flip-flopper.
I find it ironic that given Florida has the largest number of seniors residing here, that they would elect an official who was apart of a company that had to pay $1.7billion for medicare fraud. Fraud is fraud either way you look at it. Also, Scott couldn’t recall his own signature during the hearing on this issue. I’d rather not have someone signing bills into law in my state if they can’t even recall what they have previously signed. Call Crist a flip flopper all you want. As if you have never changed your mind about anything, lol.
According to what polls? The ones that only poll R’s & D’s? I haven’t trusted them for years. In reality, the people of Florida want Adrian Wyllie and he has my vote for sure.
Don’t trust either one, Crist for switching parties and views and don’t trust the governor for what he is doing messing with state workers pensions
Well….let’s see.
We can vote for a guy who was CEO of a huge hospital corporation which defrauded the government of millions upon millions of dollars and whose response to the many questions was to Take the Fifth.
Or, we can vote for a guy who did very little to help education in the state and who was more worried about his image than the people of this state. He also abdicated the job of governor by choosing to not run for a second term so he could pursue Washington DC as his next step up in government. Now he’s back after changing political parties and associations.
Danged if I personally have any faith or trust or belief in either one of these two fine gentlemen.
Not sure either one is worthy of my vote.
What a mess Florida is in AGAIN….
HELP….
I don’t trust any of them. I do know one takes campaign contributions (alot) from private prisons. Rick Scott also uses his grandchild as a tool in commercials, which is creepy. A film crew walks in his back yard and he and his grandson just happen to be nicely dressed and playing in the back yard. let your grandson be a child, not a prop.
Quinnipiac University? I have to wonder if this university in Connecticut would try to put Flip Flop Charlie in a more favorable light to have him showing this close in their poll? I hope the voters in Fl. remember that he has been on both sides and in the middle on all issues that are important to Floridians, including; Democrat? Republican? Independent? Which is he today?
I don’t trust a “flip flop flip flopper”.