NOAA Predicts A Near Or Below Normal Hurricane Season

June 1, 2014

In its 2014 Atlantic hurricane season outlook, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a near-normal or below-normal season.

The main driver of this year’s outlook is the anticipated development of El Niño this summer. El Niño causes stronger wind shear, which reduces the number and intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes. El Niño can also strengthen the trade winds and increase the atmospheric stability across the tropical Atlantic, making it more difficult for cloud systems coming off of Africa to intensify into tropical storms.

The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season. For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).

These numbers are near or below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

“It only takes one hurricane or tropical storm making landfall to have disastrous impacts on our communities,” said Joe Nimmich, FEMA associate administrator for Response and Recovery. “Just last month, Pensacola, Florida, saw five inches of rain in 45 minutes – without a tropical storm or hurricane. We need you to be ready. Know your risk for hurricanes and severe weather, take action now to be prepared and be an example for others in your office, school or community. Learn more about how to prepare for hurricanes at www.ready.gov/hurricanes.”

Comments

3 Responses to “NOAA Predicts A Near Or Below Normal Hurricane Season”

  1. No Excuses on June 1st, 2014 10:25 am

    LOL Wendell! Gotta love it! Climate change, yes. Global Warming NO!

  2. Wendell on June 1st, 2014 9:16 am

    You see, with global warming you actually end up with colder winters and less hurricanes. It’s too complicated for anybody without a liberal arts degree to understand, but if we follow Michelle’s advice and stop eating meat hopefully the cow farts won’t melt the ice caps and kill us all.

  3. JT on June 1st, 2014 4:26 am

    Just like the “mild” winter and “moderate rain showers” they predicted this year.

Written by William Reynolds · Filed Under News