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GOP: We Need You, Florida
August 28, 2012
The Republican Party’s decision to gather in Tampa to officially nominate former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney for president underlines what is quickly becoming an imperative for Romney: Carrying the Sunshine State.
The message was already sent by the decision to have former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, one of the state’s most popular political figures, and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, one of the party’s rising stars, assume prime-time speaking roles during the get-together. But party figures now are beginning to actually voice the necessity of the state instead of just suggesting it.
“Florida, we need you,” South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley told the Florida delegation during a breakfast. “We can’t win this without Florida; we can’t.”
While Haley’s remarks could be written off as a friendly gesture toward a swing state with which South Carolina shares a resort at the convention, they struck on a key truth: It would be incredibly difficult for Romney to win in November without carrying Florida.
In fact, if Obama were to carry Florida, and even if Romney were to win North Carolina, Romney would need to win a majority of the votes in the remaining swing states to win the Electoral College. But Obama has performed well in polls in many of the remaining states, especially large prizes like Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan.
Lenny Curry, chairman of the Republican Party of Florida, put it more bluntly when asked if Romney could lose the state and win the White House.
“No,” Curry said. “Mitt Romney cannot win the presidency without Florida.”
But whether holding the convention in Tampa will help swing Florida and its treasure trove of 29 electoral votes — more than a tenth of those needed for victory — to Romney remains an open question.
“There’s very little evidence that a convention helps carry a state,” said Susan MacManus, a political science professor at the University of South Florida in Tampa.
In fact, the Republicans haven’t won the state in which they held their convention since 1992 — when they held it in Texas. The GOP lost California in 1996 after holding the convention in San Diego; Pennsylvania in 2000 despite holding the confab in Philadelphia; deep blue New York when they held it in the city of the same name; and Minnesota four years ago, when Republicans gathered in St. Paul.
Holding the convention in Florida, though, isn’t necessarily fruitless. It could help along the margins, some observers say. MacManus said it could fire up the base of the party in Florida, a state that is particularly critical to Romney’s hopes of winning in November.
And the GOP will be the major story in the Tampa Bay area, along with the rest of America, over the four nights of the gathering.
“The point of the convention is really just to introduce a candidate and drive home a message,” said Brian Graham, a Republican strategist not affiliated with the Romney campaign.
But even without much of a post-convention bump, Curry said that Romney was in a good position to win the state. He said that the party was zeroing in on the independent vote after exciting the base.
“It looks like we’re there,” Curry said. “It looks like we have the energy. So now we have to carry the Mitt Romney message, the jobs message, the opportunity message to the independents, to the I-4 corridor, to Hillsborough County.”
By The News Service of Florida
Comments
22 Responses to “GOP: We Need You, Florida”
@ huh, Agreed that Rick Scott is a liability to the republican party, but I do not agree that he is going to get Obama reelected. I predict that Obama will win and that sickens me, but only because Romney and Ryan have too much baggage. I further predict that Scott will lose his bid for reelection, however when Obama goes out in 2016, Marco Rubio will be the man. Only predictions.
Bob, you may be surprised that there are more people registering as Democrats than Republicans. Check out the registration nationally not just in Escambia County,
Well thanks Nick, go vote , its your right ,and use it. But most of us , who have been life long dem’s , are leaving . (37 years) my older friends) to 80) ex -democrats 2012 , The party is not worth saving.
@huh
We can’t buy sudaphed or get on airplane or cash a check without proper ID, but you’re the guy that complained about showing ID to exercise the worlds greatest right, the right to a free vote in a free country. Now you’re so smart you can predict the election. We’re in worse trouble than I thought. :-/
Bob Hudson, some of us are not.
I am totally against abortion under any condition. However I have enough sense to know that abortion was a Supreme court decision that was made in 1972 forty years ago. The Republicans had the Whitehouse for 24 years of that 40years. What changes did they make? None because they cannot undo it. The decision was made by the Supreme court and can only be undone by the Supreme Court. This should not even be a topic during an election. As much as it disgust me abortion is here to stay, I do not use that as my basis for voting,
“The government that robs Peter to pay Paul can always count on Paul’s support”
George Bernard Shaw
Ex- democratic supporter, go Romney/Ryan, time to take our country back.
Obama is going to lose Florida , we are not stupid.
Obama would like to personally thank Rick Scott for helping him get re-elected. People are so sick of Scott that florida is going to be a sure win for Obama
To A-Z
Love your analogy about the check signers. We have makers and takers well represented here. Proud to say I voted for in this order: Ford, Reagan, Bush 41, Dole, Bush 43, McCain. I know too many people who will not say or admit they voted for Carter, Clinton and Obama. But, we would not have had a Reagan without a Carter. Lord I pray that history repeats it self because I truly believe this is our last chance. :-/
I like my God, Guns and NorthEscambia County and Ron Paul is my candidate, thats what I am about.
Obama is a guy that/who likes to spend and is a socialist. Romney is a guy that/who likes to give tax breaks to his group and export jobs to nations offering cheap labor.
Regardless of which party is dominate, civil liberties are lost and the economy will not improve until the deficit is addressed. I will have to line item each element in my personal set of values and what I know from just walking up erect and compare the two candidates to those values and see where they stand.
This is not as simple as choosing God or the devil, there are many issues and confilicting values at play. Oil and water those two candidates.
The problem is precedent. If Romney releases all his taxes then that will be the new expectation and standard. 2 years is enough. The only ones calling for more are the Dems looking for ammo. All of Obama’s school records have never been released.
There was an email that circulated that went something like this. Q. What is the difference between Romney supporters and Obama supporters? Romney supporters sign their checks on the front and Obama supporters sign their checks on the back. Pretty much sums up the two parties.
While the conversation is interesting, I’d remind everyone that the ballot is secret in this country for a reason. No one has to tell anyone who the voted for unless they want to.
Personally, I am with Bob. I think that the sensible Democrats will abandon the good ship Obama and vote for the GOP candidate this time.
I don’t believe Romney has done anything illegal with regards to his taxes. His being able to pay a lower tax rate than me is entirely legal, and that is a problem for him. Neither he nor the GOP wants to have a debate about how the tax system is rigged by and for the wealthy. There may be some other things, like Romney being much richer than he let on, or taking advantage of the tax amnesty for money in Swiss banks from 2009 that would be politically toxic, but as far as actually breaking the law, very few people think that is what he’s hiding. My personal theory is that Romney hasn’t been reporting his full income to the Mormon church for the purposes of paying his 10% tithing (which is tax deductible, don’t let him fool you). The Church would take a dim view of that. Having said all that, the addition of Paul Ryan to the ticket, with his plans for Medicare, means Florida goes for Obama, unless Romney and Ryan can get enough people believing their lies about what they have in mind for Medicare. That issue alone is enough to sink him here, without his taxes entering into it.
Well I could care less about Romney’s tax returns. Obama has proven what he thinks America should be. And I do not like it. He can not talk about his record because it is a failure and disgrace. The Democrats, wish to say he has a (War on Woman) Really? Well they have a war on unborn children and the family unit. How can any one claim to believe in christian values . when they believe in the killing of unborn children all the way in to the 9 month of term? How can they support same sex marriage? Do not know what Bible he is reading . but it is not the same as mine.
To 429SCJ
By the way, do you really believe that Obama hasn’t already had the Justice Department and the Internal Revenue Department working overtime to expose any tax evasion by Romney? I’m starting to get a clearer picture of you now. Help me out here.
To 429SCJ
I’ll try one more time. I still cannot tell who you are voting for. Are you luke as in maybe warm or maybe cold. You obviously can see the results of your last decision. I hope you take a little more time in 2012 to decide. You can drink Obamas cool aid again, throw your vote away, or stay at home and hope like hell that things work out. I personally think this will be our last chance. God I pray that I am wrong. Good luck, we’re gonna need it!
@ LeoGuy, after Dick Cheney I said that I would vote for judas if he was running for office. I voted for Obama and he has proved a miserable failure.
Mr Romney should cultivate a climate of trust, rather than try and hide his finances from the public. If I were Obama I would have the justice? department working overtime to expose any tax evasion by Romney.
I feel that Obama will resist the Israeli APAC lobby. Mr Romney may secure the borders, maybe not. The one thing I am certain of, these are dark days for America.
To 429SCJ,
It sounds you are saying you will vote for ” a case of you know what you are getting and it is not good!”, or are going to vote for a third party and throw your vote away, it’s hard to tell. I don’t have the time or space to explainit well here, but listen, is has come to where anybody is better that Obama. As for me, it is still a free country for now, and Romney does not owe me any explanations about his taxes.
The Dem’s are going to be very, very surprised about all the registered Dem’s that are leaving the party and are going to vote the Romney/Ryan ticket. The old democratic party is dead. They should call it the liberal party. Well the lib’s killed it and did a fine job of doing it. From endorsing gay marriage , to the unlimited killing of unborn children, and their new socialist type of government. My hope is Obama losses in a land slide and we can have our country back.
I do not trust Mitt Romney, he is far to secretive in regards to his finances. Mr Romney needs to realize that he is running for the Office of President, not facing a grand jury investigation. Mr Romney lacks transparency and that makes me feel suspicous of his intentions and motives?
President Obama is a case of you know what you are getting and it is not good!