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Gas Prices Up, Economists Predict Tourist Lull, Slow Growth
July 25, 2012
Gas prices in the Escambia County area are up about 10 cents during the past week; that ’s about 15 cents over a month ago.
In the short term, economists believe the rising fuel prices will serve to curb those last minute summer vacation trips to Florida, including Escambia County and the local beaches.
Meeting this week to recalibrate earlier estimates on a host of indices from housing starts to unemployment, economists from the Legislature and the governor’s office made only minor changes to a forecast last revised in December.
The bigger economic picture remains largely unchanged, said Amy Baker, coordinator of the Legislature’s Office of Economic and Demographic Research. Florida is expected to avoid another recession, but the climb back remains slow.
“We are not expecting any dramatic changes in our previous forecast,” Baker said. “We are making some minor adjustments, but that’s about it.”
Compounding Florida’ recovery will be the situation in Europe, which is embroiled in debate over the structure and make-up of the European Union. The union is experiencing significant financial instability as it decides the fate of Greece and looks at other struggling countries that have become a drag on the economy.
Florida’s tourism industry may suffer as a result. European travelers have helped buoy the state’s multibillion-dollar market in recent years as favorable exchange rates have led many visitors to Florida’s shores. Such exuberance may ebb as economic uncertainty and a rising U.S. dollar make traveling more expensive.
Overseas tourism may drop by up to 2 percent over the next 12 months, before picking up again in 2014. It will not return to robust year-to-year growth until 2015.
“I’m seeing a decline through 2013 as Europe experiences the brunt of their recession,” said Clyde Diao, an economist in Gov. Rick Scott’s office.
One bright exception is Canada. Taking advantage of lower gas prices, the flow of Canadians to Florida would increase by nearly 6 percent by the end of 2013. The rebound would be welcome. Canadian tourism dropped 11.4 percent during the first three months of 2012, a drop largely due to high gas prices.
Job growth will remain sluggish as the state continues to claw its way back following a real estate and housing crash that began in 2007. Even the most optimistic projection has Florida’s unemployment rate above 6 percent until 2016.
Unemployment will gradually decrease over the next few years, fueled in part by a reduction in housing inventory and slowly rising home prices.
Sales and median prices of existing homes will continue to be soft, with another wave of foreclosures expected to temper the rising prices. Still, new home starts are up and point to a modest recovery in the construction sector, which has jettisoned nearly 25,000 jobs in the past 12 months.
The News Service of Florida contributed to this report.
Pictured: The price of a gallon of regular unleaded was at $3.35 Tuesday morning in Molino. NorthEscambia.com photo, click to enlarge.
Comments
16 Responses to “Gas Prices Up, Economists Predict Tourist Lull, Slow Growth”
CONSIDERING:
“Well David can you argue that more consumption has a factor in supply and demand?”
Argue? No. I will simply agree consumption is a a part of supply and demand. You can’t consume what isn’t supplied.
You won’t consume what you don’t want..
” And do you believe we deserve more fuel at what we consider reasonable prices more than other countries in the world?”
Absolutely.
We’re special.
Actually, we don’t deserve anthing but to be treated fairly. Many other countries mistreat their people. Come to think of it, all countries mistreat their people one way or another. One thing is certain, what we pay for a product is not directly tied to what someone in Lower Slobovia pays. Some of them have a dollar a liter tax on fuel. Some of them sell it for pennies per gallon to make the people happy; it means they have less money for other necessities, but it keeps their dictators in power.
“We in the United States feel we must have a huge supply of fuel to burn up at all times.”
Much of our supply is petroleum coming into the country to be refined and sold to countries which have chosen not to have refineries but to depend on others. And, yes, we should have what we need to stave off the darkness. We shouldn’t do without just because some other country makes its people suffer.
The real question would be why you would think we shouldn’t have a decent supply.
“Other developing countries are discovering the amazing thing called an automobile and gas that makes it run.”
Yep, and they are finding they enjoy the freedom of travel it involves. More power to them.
David for satisfied people
Well David can you argue that more consumption has a factor in supply and demand? And do you believe we deserve more fuel at what we consider reasonable prices more than other countries in the world? We in the United States feel we must have a huge supply of fuel to burn up at all times. Other developing countries are discovering the amazing thing called an automobile and gas that makes it run.
REGARDING:
“They use more gas to drive which keeps the fuel in higher demand.”
You are absolutely right.
Using anything raises the price of it.
If nobody used anything, its price would be zero.
People will pay whatever they must to meet their needs, if they can afford it at all.
If they can’t afford it at all and really need it, they simply die for the lack of it.
Now imagine someone came up with a way to synthesize as much octane as you could wish for ten cents per gallon using nothing but sunlight, seawater and carbon dioxide.
Would you still want the price to be $5/gallon?
If so, why?
David considering who is really hurt
David Huie Green….I am not jealous of SUV or giant truck drivers. Rather those keep gas prices higher as they relate to supply and demand. They use more gas to drive which keeps the fuel in higher demand.
REGARDING:
“would keep all those inefficient suv and giant fuel guzzling autos off the road!”
Nah, some would STILL be on the road just to irritate the jealous. The richer folks would still drive. It would just force the poorer people off the road or onto bicycles and closer to work.
The deputies would still be driving SUVs.
The politicians, good public servants that they are, would still have armored limousines.
Ambulances would still guzzle fuel, just the expense would go up.
It would also make transportation more expensive and lower the standard of living of the poorer people. It’s a giant left/right wing conspiracy to keep the poor in their place and finance Middle Eastern despots and terrorists.
David for better living
shiloh, I tend to think $5.00 a gallon for gas would keep all those inefficient suv and giant fuel guzzling autos off the road!
Wondered what the higher prices would be blamed on this time. Fols are getting quite creative with the excuses for raising it. As for $5 being about right…just how much is your income???? In this household, we are barely scraping by at 3.50 a gallon! Unless wages increase drastically, most average income families are gonna be HARD hit if it climbs any higher.
REGARDING:
“Gas is too cheap. Five bucks a gallon would be about right.”
There isn’t any real set value for anything, either the value of a five dollar bill or of a gallon of gasoline but I hate to make you suffer and if you want to pay $5 per gallon for your gasoline, just send me the difference between what the station charges and $5.
David trying to be helpful
The higher energy prices go, the slower the growth is going to be!! I wonder why they can’t put two and two together?
Gas is to cheap. Five bucks a gallon would be about right.
YELLARHAMMER you should know that the problems of one President’s actions aren’t necessarily easily resolved when a new President that takes over. Some things take time or simply can’t be resolved quickly to undo another President’s mistakes. We need to support someone for sure besides Mitt Romney. He’s far too out of touch with the American people so I will vote again for Obama!!
It dosan’t matter what political party that you are part of but we have got to stop blaming the Bush administration. We are in the mess that Obama has created now and we as citizens and voters of this country need to vote out all the trash in Washington if not for our presant problems but for our kids future. SEND THEM A MESSAGE!!!!!!!!!!!
James let’s just wait and see. Time always tells.
429SCJ, the news you seek that hasn’t been covered is because you may not be looking at the right sources online and on television. Try looking at reputable internet news sites and you may find information you seek. I know we differ in political views but there are both sides covered well on the internet.
Corn futures advanced 77% since July 2011, rice prices up 39%, sugar 64%, cabbage 17%, celery 27% to name a few (Bloomburg Financial), someone dies of starvation every 3.6 seconds on this earth and yes fuel cost are increasing
Mr Burnanke can say that the fed is not printing money and inflation is under control?
I am glad that the network news is focusing more on stuff like which flavor thong Beyonce is wearing, or what is going on with the Jackson family, if they focused on what is really happening people might have different priority of concerns.
They may be up in Escambia county and Florida.BUT,
go to Mobile or Mississippi and there prices are NOT up ?????
Sound like price gouging to me………………..