State Economic Forecast Steady, House Calls For Timely Budget

January 13, 2012

State economists left their revenue estimate for the next year and a half all but unchanged Thursday, prompting renewed calls from the House for lawmakers to finish their budget on time despite the Senate leaders’ hesitance to move too quickly.

The new estimate issued Thursday changes the overall projection by $26.1 million — about 1 percent of the projected $2 billion budget shortfall and an increase of 0.05 percent in projected revenue. It includes an increase of $46 million in the estimate for the current year and a drop of $19.9 million for the fiscal year beginning July 1.

“You don’t hardly get any closer to the current estimate than that,” said Amy Baker, coordinator of the Office of Economic & Demographic Research.

House leaders swiftly pointed to the steady estimate as a sign that Senate President Mike Haridopolos should drop his public consideration of an extended session or a special session to deal with the budget shortfall. Haridopolos, R-Merritt Island, has said he’s concerned that the numbers could still change dramatically between now and the summer.

Lawmakers would normally work off of estimates developed shortly after the session opens in March, but needed an earlier figure for this year’s session, which began Jan. 10 because of redistricting.

“We will once again face many difficult choices as we craft a budget that reflects the House priorities,” said House Appropriations Chairwoman Denise Grimsley. “Delaying these tough choices will not make them go away.”

House Speaker Dean Cannon, R-Winter Park, said that completing a budget by the end of the 60-day session would also help future job growth by giving business leaders certainty about the future.

“There are inherent risks and uncertainty with any forecast, but none that can’t be overcome with conservative budgeting, planning for contingencies and setting aside ample reserves,” Cannon said.

Haridopolos was unmoved.

“The President continues to have concerns about the revenue estimate,” spokeswoman Lyndsey Cruley said in an email.

The conference found that there were some downside risks for the economy related to personal income in Florida and a potential debt crisis in Europe, but it also said that “the likelihood of a second recession has diminished” in recent months.

“Overall, the adjustments to the forecast indicate an economy that is still in an abnormally slow recovery,” an executive summary issued by the revenue estimating conference stated.

Forecasters are not set to meet again until the summer, though Baker told reporters they would be willing to do so again if lawmakers wanted fresh numbers. At the same time, she suggested that wasn’t necessary.

“At this point, I wouldn’t know of a reason to say, ‘”Well, check back with us in a few months.’”

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Written by William Reynolds · Filed Under News