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Charlie Crist Sees Career Halted On GOP’s Night

Gov. Charlie Crist picked the wrong election year to leave the Republican Party.

Crist walked into a ballroom Tuesday night at the Vinoy Renaissance, a swanky hotel in his hometown of St. Petersburg, and conceded defeat in the U.S. Senate race to Republican Marco Rubio, doing what seemed unthinkable just a couple of years ago -putting a stop, at least for now, to what seemed to be a meteoric political rise.

Of course, few thought Crist wouldn’t be a Republican either.

Crist thanked his wife Carole, his parents and his sisters. And he thanked his supporters.

“I also want you to know from the bottom of my heart it has been the greatest honor of my public life to serve as your governor,” he told backers.

It was far different from the scene four years ago, when Crist, buoyed by cheering crowds and adoring supporters throughout the state, won the governor’s office over Democrat Jim Davis. The term political rock star was thrown around and Crist was talked of as a future presidential contender. He was also vetted as a possible running mate for Republican presidential candidate John McCain.

Tuesday night, he was the odd man out, watching from outside the Republican Party he once headed as it celebrated its biggest election night in more than a decade. And he watched Rubio win a Senate seat that early on seemed Crist’s to take.

“More than anything, Crist proves the axiom that timing and opportunity are the most important variables,” said Democratic strategist Steve Schale, who ran President Barack Obama’s Florida operation in 2008. “Virtually any other cycle, Crist would be punching his ticket to the Senate. He just ran into a buzz saw in 2010.”

Crist started as the easy favorite. When he jumped in, Republican leaders tried to clear the field for him.

But Rubio persisted, catching the attention of the Tea Party movement and county Republican parties. He went to all the small grassroots events and slowly his numbers began to rise. By the spring, Crist saw his campaign struggling to reach Republican voters. His popularity seemed to lie more with Democrats and moderates.

When it looked like he could lose the GOP primary to Rubio, he left the Republican Party to run as an independent and his cross party popularity showed as his poll numbers catapulted him past Rubio and Democratic candidate Kendrick Meek. Early in the summer, it looked like Crist would triumph over his former party. Then it fell apart.

As Crist moved away from his Republican roots, and enthusiasm grew among conservatives, Rubio rode a growing national star. And Crist’s numbers tumbled.

Crist – always thought of as having an incredibly keen sense of political timing – either missed what was developing, or suddenly became less interested in winning after a lifetime of having a knack for it. In what clearly was stacking up as a Republican year, Crist was courting Democrats and moderates. His strategy – and at least for now his career – came to a halt Tuesday night.

“This was the wrong year,” for a “raging moderate” like Crist said former Sen. Dave Aronberg, a Democrat who also lost this year in the primary for attorney general.

“I thought he had the highest political skill of anyone I ever met,” Aronberg said. “His major miscalculation was he underestimated the rise of the right wing of the Republican Party and the tea party.”

The question now is whether Crist’s quixotic independent Senate run was his swan song or whether he’ll reinvent himself. He could turn to the private sector and run a foundation like his predecessor Gov. Jeb Bush. He’d likely be a welcome visiting professor at university political science departments.

Or, he could sit back and wait for an opportune moment to jump back in the political arena. In 1998, former Gov. Bob Graham trounced Crist in the U.S. Senate race. Afterward, Bush appointed him to be a deputy secretary at the Department of Business and Professional Regulation. Crist bided his time and in 2000 won a special election for Education Commissioner’s race, then an elected position. He followed it up with a win in the 2004 attorney general’s race and then the governor’s race in 2006. Some have suggested he may be interested in the Tampa Bay area U.S. House seat now held by U.S. Rep. Bill Young.

“For Crist, with his universal name ID, the question isn’t if he can make a comeback, but when his ambition and political opportunity line up,” Schale said.

Crist was brief in his public remarks Tuesday night and left no hint as to what he might do in the future. He exited the stage, shaking hands and hugging friends. Crist, who has rarely been unwilling to go before the press, didn’t take any questions.

By Kathleen Haughney
The News Service Florida