Viewpoint: ‘Twas The Week Before The Primaries

August 21, 2010

‘Twas the week before the primaries, when all through the state, every creature was stirring, especially candidates.

There was stirring in the polls too, though which direction they were going changed from day to day – and poll to poll. One showed Republican gubernatorial candidate Bill McCollum and Democratic U.S. Senate hopeful Kendrick Meek, two familiar faces in Florida politics, could be stirring in their tougher-than-expected primaries with new-to-the-scene opponents who have spent millions of dollars to wrest the respective nominations away from them.

A Quinnipiac University poll showed both men surging to leads over their largely self-financed opponents, with McCollum leading former Columbia Healthcare/HCA CEO Rick Scott by a 44 percent to 35 percent margin, and Meek leading by 35 percent to 28 percent over Jeff Greene. Less than three weeks ago, McCollum trailed Scott by nine points and Meek was behind real estate mogul Greene by 10 points.

Momentum changes all the time. But the same day, a Sunshine State News poll showed Scott still holding a narrow edge on McCollum, 44 to 42 percent. Explain that.

While you’re at it, explain last week, when a Mason-Dixon poll showed McCollum leading Scott 34 percent to 30 percent in the GOP gubernatorial primary, with a five percent margin of error. Or days later, when a St. Petersburg Times poll conducted by Ipsos Public Affairs had Scott ahead by a 42 percent to 32 percent tally, with the margin of error at 5.9 percent. A Florida Medical Association poll by The Tarrance Group had McCollum up 44-40.

For those keeping score, in the Democratic U.S. Senate primary, Mason-Dixon showed Meek ahead by 14 points against self-funded Greene while the Ipsos Poll had Greene up by 4.

By week’s end, no one was sure which numbers were most accurate as the candidates head into the home stretch. The cause for the disparity was likely that some polls were surveying registered voters; some polls were counting only “likely” voters.

Convention wisdom says likely voter surveys are typically more accurate, unless of course, an unlikely number of voters show up at the polls. Put another way, your guess is as good as your favorite pollster’s.

There was little doubt however that the hotly contest primaries could have unintended beneficiaries, however. Independent Senate candidate Charlie Crist and presumptive Democratic gubernatorial nominee Alex Sink maintained leads of all their possible opponents.

Quinnipiac University’s survey of general election matchups showed Sink, who once trailed McCollum by double-digits, now leading 31-29 percent in that hypothetical matchup – within the poll’s 3 percentage point margin of error. If Scott becomes the GOP nominee, Sink holds a 33-29 percent advantage, with independent Bud Chiles drawing support from 12 percent of voters.

Looking ahead to the November Senate race, Crist led former House Speaker Marco Rubio 39-32 percent, with Meek gaining 16 percent. If Greene wins next week’s Democratic primary, Crist gets 40 percent to Rubio’s 32 percent and Greene’s 15 percent.

Crist’s numbers were buoyed by a stunning level of support from Democratic voters. Crist, who broke with the Republican Party in April, pulled more support among Democrats – 45 percent – than either Meek or Greene, who drew 36 and 31 percent respectively. But that’s probably not a surprise to anyone who witnessed lawmakers’ reactions to his last few State of the State addresses, when the loudest cheers came from the back of the room.

SINK’S NOT WAITING FOR THE RESULTS

Like the rest of us, Alex Sink will find out Tuesday who she will be running against in the fall. But she did not wait this week to get started campaigning for the Governor’s Mansion, naming her running mate earlier than expected and launching her first television commercial.

Sink tapped former state Sen. Rod Smith to join her on the ticket, hoping the tough-edged, ex-prosecutor from Gainesville would help her courting conservative voters. Sink had been expected to wait until after the primaries were over to make her choice, but she said this week she wanted voters being inundated with television commercials to know they had “a choice” in the governor’s race.

And hoping to make that choice clear for them, Sink released an ad attacking both McCollum and Scott for the harsh GOP primary, with impersonators of Scott and McCollum arguing in a classroom to illustrate the point.

“Don’t know about you, but I’ve had just about enough of politicians attacking each other,” Sink said over the argument in the commercial. “I’m Alex Sink, and I’m ready to attack Florida’s challenges.” After detailing a few of her campaign promises, Sink closes the ad by saying “the fight I’ll be having as governor is for you.”

However, the state Republican Party signaled this week it’s just as ready to pick a fight with Sink. Republican Party of Florida Executive Director Ronnie Whitaker criticized Sink for appearing at a Miami fundraiser with President Barack Obama, but not taking pictures with him.

By contrast, Meek’s campaign, which has sought for weeks to show that Obama’s administration was not quietly supporting Gov. Crist in the Senate race, couldn’t wait to show pictures of the Miami Congressman with Obama. Just in case anyone missed the news that the president and Meek stopped for sandwiches after the fundraiser, Meek’s campaign E-mailed pictures to supporters.

Elsewhere in politics, a couple of high-profile national Republicans got involved in the decidedly low-profile attorney general’s race. Former Alaska Gov. and Vice-Presidential nominee Sarah Palin endorsed former Hillsborough prosecutor Pam Bondi on her Facebook page, which carries more weight than when most people click the site’s “like” button. Former Agency for Health Care Administration Secretary Holly Benson quickly countered with an endorsement from former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who is speculated to be considering a run for president like Palin.

The odd man out, Lt. Gov. Jeff Kottkamp, must be waiting to hear back from former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.

CANNON GOES TO BAT FOR REDISTRICTING

In non-political news – that is still very political – House Speaker-designate Dean Cannon took to the Supreme Court to defend the Legislature’s attempt to blunt a pair of ballot measures that could threaten the Republican Party’s grip on the Legislature and congressional delegation.

In a rare move by an elected official, Cannon, who is also a lawyer, appeared before justices to argue in favor of keeping proposed constitutional Amendment 7 on the November ballot. He said the measure is needed to assure minorities can maintain representation in the Legislature and Congress when voting district boundaries are redrawn in 2012.

The high court seemed divided on the issue though. Newly installed Chief Justice Charles Canady noted that there was no law that banned a constitutional provision that might be vague or confusing and questioned whether the court even had the authority to prohibit the people from considering an amendment because it is ambiguous.

But Justice Peggy Quince voiced concerns throughout the argument that voters might not know the relationship between the amendments, specifically that Amendment 7 was meant to either counter or add to the other two proposals.

“They’re going to read 5 and 6,” she said. “They’re going to read 7. And my goodness, will have no idea that 7 really is there to negate or explain or do something about 5 and 6. And it just seems to me that we really do the public a disservice if we put these kinds of amendments on the ballot that don’t even make reference to the fact that there is something else that’s there that is related to them.”

Elsewhere, new Public Service Commissioner Ronald Brisé was publicly sworn-in to the panel and Gov. Crist got seven names to replace two other commissioners whose applications for re-appointment were denied by a panel of lawmakers. The PSC Nominating Council selected a term-limited senator who was overlooked for two recent openings, Sen. Lee Constantine, and the former executive director of the panel, Mary Bane, who was in charge when PSC staffers sent off-the-record cell phone messages to utility employees during rate increase hearings.

Other finalists included former Missouri Public Service Commissioner Connie Murray, Senate Communications, Energy & Utilities Committee legislative analyst Kevin Wiehle, West Palm Beach assistant city administrator Eduardo Balbis, former Tampa assistant city attorney Julie I. Brown and James S. Baumstark, an engineer who previously worked for Progress Energy.

STORY OF THE WEEK: The candidates – and the polls – were all over the place in this final full week of campaigning before Tuesday’s primaries, and a candidate for governor who has the luxury of not having serious primary opposition kicked off the general election in earnest.

QUOTE OF THE WEEK: “Likely voters are usually a more accurate gauge, unless you have a lot of people who come to the polls who normally don’t vote,” Lance deHaven Smith, Florida State University professor who studies polling and public policy, summing up the ambivalence of the week’s polling.

Comments

One Response to “Viewpoint: ‘Twas The Week Before The Primaries”

  1. Bonnie Exner on August 22nd, 2010 10:25 pm

    If you don’t exercize your privilege of voting,you lose your right to complain and deserve who you get!!!

Written by William Reynolds · Filed Under News