Hurricane Season Begins

June 1, 2010

Tuesday was the first day of hurricane season, and the National Weather Service is predicting an “active to extremely active” season for the Atlantic Basin this year.

Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the six-month season, which begins June 1, NOAA is projecting a 70 percent probability of the following ranges:

  • 14 to 23 Named Storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
  • 8 to 14 Hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
  • 3 to 7 could be Major Hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)

“If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “The greater likelihood of storms brings an increased risk of a landfall. In short, we urge everyone to be prepared.”

The outlook ranges exceed the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. Expected factors supporting this outlook are:

  • Upper atmospheric winds conducive for storms. Wind shear, which can tear apart storms, will be weaker since El Niño in the eastern Pacific has dissipated. Strong wind shear helped suppress storm development during the 2009 hurricane season.
  • Warm Atlantic Ocean water. Sea surface temperatures are expected to remain above average where storms often develop and move across the Atlantic. Record warm temperatures – up to four degrees Fahrenheit above average – are now present in this region.
  • High activity era continues. Since 1995, the tropical multi-decadal signal has brought favorable ocean and atmospheric conditions in sync, leading to more active hurricane seasons. Eight of the last 15 seasons rank in the top ten for the most named storms with 2005 in first place with 28 named storms.

“The main uncertainty in this outlook is how much above normal the season will be. Whether or not we approach the high end of the predicted ranges depends partly on whether or not La Niña develops this summer,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “At present we are in a neutral state, but conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for La Niña to develop.”

“FEMA is working across the administration and with our state and local partners to ensure we’re prepared for hurricane season,” said FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate. “But we can only be as prepared as the public, so it’s important that families and businesses in coastal communities take steps now to be ready. These include developing a communications plan, putting together a kit, and staying informed of the latest forecasts and local emergency plans. You can’t control when a hurricane or other emergency may happen, but you can make sure you’re ready.”

The president recently designated May 23-29, 2010, as National Hurricane Preparedness Week. NOAA and FEMA encourage those living in hurricane-prone states to use this time to review their overall preparedness. More information on individual and family preparedness can be found at www.Ready.gov and www.hurricanes.gov/prepare.

NOAA scientists will continue to monitor evolving conditions in the tropics and will issue an updated hurricane outlook in early August, just prior to what is historically the peak period for hurricane activity.

Comments

9 Responses to “Hurricane Season Begins”

  1. whitepunknotondope on June 2nd, 2010 12:14 pm

    “The bible tells us over 350 times – in one way or another – DO NOT BE AFRAID or FEAR NOT.”

    Did you actually count them, or is there some kind of online “bible quote lookup” app?

    Because if you actually counted them you seriously need to get a hobby or a life!

  2. mph on June 2nd, 2010 10:45 am

    The bible tells us over 350 times – in one way or another – DO NOT BE AFRAID or FEAR NOT. Be prepared yes – afraid No.

  3. JJ on June 1st, 2010 3:16 pm

    Big Al, my preparations will be the same no matter how many they predict. It’s not like I’m going out today to buy enough gas and food to last through 9 storms, and if there were 14 I’d be blowed up. What’s the difference?

    Besides, I’m going to be prepared, but I ain’t panicking until I know it’s coming up Palafox St.

  4. whitepunknotondope on June 1st, 2010 1:35 pm

    “Remember, these folks are not your regular guys next door. They are PhD graduates from Ivy League schools.”

    Don’t be fooled by academia, it isn’t really worth the paper it’s written on. You can teach a monkey to do calculus, but you wouldn’t trust one to make important decisions.

  5. Big Al on June 1st, 2010 12:10 pm

    Well, I would rather be prepared for 14 and only have 9 than be prepared for 9 and have 14. What do you think?

  6. Wendy on June 1st, 2010 12:09 pm

    JJ,
    I believe they are much craftier than you can imagine. Remember, these folks are not your regular guys next door. They are PhD graduates from Ivy League schools. They very smart, not especially ethical, and are carefully considering which lies they will tell us next. They use these predications to first enhance their own importance and then to sway public opinion in whatever direction they feel is important. Right now, they feel it is important to convince us that global warming is on the verge of destroying life as we know it and that all of these hurricanes are going to fall upon us right away.

  7. JJ on June 1st, 2010 11:50 am

    Yeah, last year they predicted 14 named storms. We had 9. That’s just a little more than half of what they predicted.

    I think they have a dart board with a bunch of numbers on it… some geek closes his eyes, throws a dart and whatever he hits is what they go with….

  8. EMD on June 1st, 2010 10:27 am

    Well fancy that WPOD. We agree on something.

  9. whitepunknotondope on June 1st, 2010 9:38 am

    The NOAA is peddling fear. Plain and simple. Nobody living in hurricane prone areas needs to know this prediction any more than they need a hole in their roof.

    The basics: be prepared in the event of an impending storm regardless.

Written by William Reynolds · Filed Under News