Florida’s Populaton Declines For First Time Since 1946

August 18, 2009

Florida’s population declined last year for the first time since 1946 as the steep national recession put the brakes on in-state migration and also sent many residents packing, University of Florida researchers reported Monday. That population decline, according to one state representative, should be a wake up call for the state.

Florida lost 58,000 residents compared to a year earlier, as the nation’s fourth largest state settled in with a population of 18.7 million people. The number of Floridians lost represents a city roughly the size of Pensacola.

“Florida is not the place it was in the past,” State Representative Dave Murzin told NorthEscambia.com. Murzin blames the declining population, in part, on a perception that property taxes and property insurance rates are too high in the state.

“In an economy that is based on sales tax,” Murzin said, “it’s a problem. Florida has got to realize that we have no industry, and we can no longer base revenue on people coming into our state.”

“It’s certainly a unique situation after so many years of sometimes remarkable growth,” said Stan Smith, director of the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida. “More people are leaving and fewer are coming in.”

A year earlier, even as the recession began to grip Florida and the nation, the state still gained 126,852 new residents. But those findings were a sharp drop from increases of almost 500,000 residents seen in 2003-04, records show.

The university is expected to release details of the latest population survey Wednesday. Only statewide numbers were made available Monday to the News Service of Florida, but the findings bolster trends already reflected in three consecutive years of school enrollment declines and a drop in the number of jobs available in Florida.

State economists forecast that Florida’s unemployment rate will hover around 11 percent through at least the first half of next year.

Luring out-of-state residents has been Florida’s go-to economic plan since the early days of statehood. One of Florida’s most robust periods occurred when annual population growth of between 2 percent and 2.6 percent was reported from the mid-1990s through 2006, according to UF demographers.

But when the recession hit — officially December 2007 — Florida’s growth numbers began tailing off. Looking ahead, only 70,000 new Floridians are expected to be added in the next two years, officials have said.

The decline is evident in Florida classrooms, where 10,000 students this fall are expected to leave the nation’s fourth largest school system. It’s the third straight year of shrinking enrollment in the 2.6 million-student system, reversing 25 years of often-rapid growth following a brief slump which occurred the recession of the early 1980s.

“Population growth is the biggest economic driver we have,” said Amy Baker, coordinator of the Legislature’s Office of Economic and Demographic Research. “Our economic recovery is really based on when people elsewhere feel comfortable enough to sell their homes and buy here, and take a chance to come to Florida to take a new job.”

“Until employment improves, we’re not expecting to see huge jumps in the economy,” Baker added.

Researchers say Americans nationwide are staying in place because of the cratered housing and job markets.

Just over 257,000 people moved away from New York between July 2007 and July 2008, according to demographers at Queens College. But that was the first time that fewer than 300,000 New Yorkers left annually since the Census Bureau began collecting the data in 1982.

The number of New Yorkers leaving also is about half what it was in 2005-06, the peak year for out-of-state migration.

New York has been the leading source of domestic migrants to Florida and the Sunshine State remains the top choice of departing New Yorkers. There’s just not as many of them.

Florida lawmakers this spring tried to kick-start the staggering development industry by approving legislation backed by business groups that removed a key underpinning of growth-management legislation.

Lawmakers erased road-building requirements for projects in densely-populated areas – saying it will encourage urban infill.

Sen. Don Gaetz, R-Niceville, chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Florida’s Economy, defended the Legislature’s approach as not merely trying to put the spurs to Florida’s one-trick pony again.

“The days are over for us thinking economic development means standing at the stateline with a glass of orange juice and a land map,” Gaetz said.

But Chris McCarty, a UF economist, isn’t so hopeful.

“Growth is being managed by other factors,” he said. “Basically, it’s whether people can sell their homes in other states and move to Florida. We’re not seeing that.”

Comments

12 Responses to “Florida’s Populaton Declines For First Time Since 1946”

  1. B on August 20th, 2009 3:18 pm

    Nice rebuttals Daryl. I agree to drill, drill, drill would be just plain dumb, dumb, dumb. The harvest of all types of fossil fuels irrecably damages the environment. Some people need to stop being so short-sighted and look a little past tomorrow and the next day and become a little more concerned with our environment before it is too late.

  2. Darryl on August 19th, 2009 8:42 am

    If saying I like the principals of T. Roosevelt over Bush on the environment, If saying I think the state of Florida has to look at the real cost and impacts of drilling versus the tourism and recreational industry in the state (and based on the numbers it is a big gamble), and if saying that oil rigs and their pipelines do spill oil makes me A) liberal, B) “Democrat” (actually an independent; I’m not letting either party dictate my position), or C) whatever other derogatory label, then I can handle it, for when we are short sighted, looking out only for ourselves, others and our future generation be damned, then I don’t think I’m the one being led like a sheep.

    It is the same thing with the local waterways versus certain industry; for years Escambia let industry pollute the creeks and rivers because for years we just didn’t pay attention, and when we did, we were told industry couldn’t operate efficiently if it had to do protections against environmental damage. So now we struggle to clean up the mess. Anyone willing to drink the water out of Escambia River or how about Perdido River just below 13 mile creek? Wanting to have water that is clean or air that doesn’t make you sick or kill the vegetation is not asking too much. The Smoky Mountains have large areas of trees dying from acid rain. How many waterways are unsafe and have warnings on eating fish from them?

    A doctor who specialized in cancer up in Birmingham, back in the late 80’s, said he covered a 360 degree area around Birmingham and his worst count of cancer per the population count was the region area around Pensacola and Mobile. Something to think about.

  3. Sheepherder on August 18th, 2009 3:47 pm

    Darryl sounds like another one of the mindless sheep in this country (IE Democrats). Believing everything they write and believing what the politicians are telling him to do. Keep following the flock into poverty. BAHHHH!!! BAHHHH!!!

  4. Frank on August 18th, 2009 1:28 pm

    I remember the oil rig in East Bay years ago with no problems and as a Florida Native I see no problem with Tapping our resources. It served Santa Rosa Co. well for years with the Jay oil.

  5. Darryl on August 18th, 2009 1:26 pm

    All I’m saying is that the money from the other industries far exceeds the money from any oil revenues, and that the notion that protecting beaches is unimportant is rather frightful. What if a spill hits 5% of the tourism industry, where using the smaller revenue number puts the impact greater than the benefit from the oil revenue. I mean you are talking about a 40,000,000,000,000 industry (I think I left off some zeros before). Plus, what jobs for the average Floridian will be created by oil companies drilling off shore? I know Escambia is really loosing jobs in manufacturing and other traditional sectors, but relying on oil isn’t going to fill the void. There are some serious problems in the panhandle that old industry solution will not fix over the long term. And saying CBS or anyone else is biased doesn’t change the fact that oil spills happened…or do you think hollywood contributed special effects for the photos too? I guess you prefer the tabloid Fox News distortions. None of the media outlets are perfect but to whitewash over the issues just because you don’t like the source, or the message, doesn’t change the facts. I’m amazed how some will sacrifice their home environment, try to use up every resource, foul their own environment to get some resource (you should see the effects of strip mining for coal) all at the expense of their own children’s future.

    I just think you’re being short sighted to the costs versus the actual benefits, unless you are in the industry, then you obviously have some personal gain from it.

  6. JD on August 18th, 2009 12:59 pm

    I have to agree with Drill!. We have heard the “we don’t want to damage our beach argument “for to long and it is getting old. I can’t feed my kids with beach sand.

  7. Drill! Drill! Drill! on August 18th, 2009 12:53 pm

    Daryl,
    Unfortunately I don’t have the time on my hands to “Google” the internet for the biased opinions of MSNBC and CBS that you do, and I am not going to get into a battle of numbers from useless reports. My point is, if you continue to live in the dark and are not willing to contribute and make use of all the resources you have at your disposal- The state of Florida will continue to lose jobs and people to the states that are willing to tap natural resources or encourage industry. Florida cannot continue to survive on tourism alone. California is a prime example of this. Not everyone can afford the taxes and insurance in the state of Florida working at the “T-Shirt Shop”. Lastly, more damage is done each year to the coastal areas because of drainage from inland pollutants than anything the Offshore Industry “might” do. I was simply asking the readers to look at what is happening around them. Valuable oil is being taken away by Cuba and the Chinese and Senator Nelson is refusing to look at the big picture and the needs of all of the citizens, only the wants of the rich.

  8. Darryl on August 18th, 2009 12:11 pm

    Well, I may be listening to “wacho environmentalist” but the truth is there was oil spills:

    excerpt:
    “In May 2006, the U.S. Minerals Management Service (MMS) issued a report stating that as a result of both Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, the number of pipelines damaged was 457, and the number of offshore platforms destroyed was 113, with a total of 146 oil spills recorded.

    A study of environmental impacts written for MMS by Det Norske Veritas and Company and published March 22, 2007 told an even more detailed story.

    As a result of both storms, a total volume of 17,652 barrels (or roughly three-quarters of a million gallons) of total petroleum products, of which 13,137 barrels were crude oil and condensate, was spilled from platforms, rigs and pipelines. 4,514 barrels were refined products from platforms and rigs.

    There were 542 reports related to offshore pipelines that were damaged or displaced, of which 72 resulted in spills that had a volume of one barrel or more of crude oil or condensate. These pipelines were reported to be dented, kinked, pulled up, twisted or bent, pinhole or valve leaks or other damages.

    The 72 pipeline spills were accountable for about 7,300 barrels of crude oil and condensate spilled into the Gulf.”
    link: http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/07/19/opinion/main4275167.shtml

    or this msnbc link on oil spills: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9365607/

    I know there are some who think we should drill any where and any time to get the oil we desire as if it is some kind of right but sooner or later we will have to face the fact alternatives have to be made the focus instead of business as usual. Your locking in the cap lock key doesn’t make your point any more valid, in fact it is not on the oil spills.

    On the taxes, something to consider: In 2002, the tourism and recreational activities of Florida residents generated $51,127.6 billion in taxable (sales and use tax) transactions as compared to $41,380.4 billion in 1998. This is $9.5 billion more than in 1998. Whereas taxable sales from tourism and recreational activities were down by $168.9 million in 2001 due to the recession and 9/11, by 2002 they were again up, by $193 million. Table 3 shows by sales category those portions of taxable sales most influenced by tourism between 1998 and 2001. link: http://www.cefa.fsu.edu/florida_tourism03.pdf

    on the drilling: New revenues would come from a $1 million non-refundable application fee for every bidder and, according to an industry-hired economist, from as much as $1.6 billion in royalties and taxes if the wells produce oil.

    So IF the wells produce it is 1.6 billion versus 40,000,000,000 to 50,000,000,000 from tourism. link: http://www.miamiherald.com/486/story/1011104.html

    On some of the more silly comments in your last post: artificial reefs can work as well as oil rigs, that is a misdirection comment with no validity. The issue of tourist creating trash is a problem and one to address, along with the over pumping of water from the aquifer, etc. But that too is straying from the main point that oil spills occurred, and the state of Florida has to weigh the actual benefits of each, not the rhetoric such as “there was no oil spills”.

  9. Drill! Drill! Drill! on August 18th, 2009 10:32 am

    Darryl,
    You have been led down the path of death and destruction by the Wacko Environmentalists. The facts ARE that rigs-do not have oil spills as they have no oil on them- they drill for oil, the majority if not all are cable of moving out of the path of a hurricane. Platforms do not spill oil as a result of hurricane damage as they have Sub-Surface Safety valves that are closed and shut-in that prevent the oil form ever coming from the well. The only chance of a spill may come from a damaged pipeline, and that is a rare occurrence. There is very little chance of damage to your precious beaches. The areas that they are looking to develop are over 100 miles from the coastline. If there was any type of spill the currents in the gulf would carry it towards Texas. Ever been to South Padre Island? Everything your tourists throw in the water ends up there. Right now there are tankers from overseas with thousands of barrels of oil crossing through the waters off Florida’s coast within 100 miles that are more likely to have a spill than an oil rig or platform. If your fishing industry brings in so much revenue, why are there so many boats based out of Destin and Ft. Walton that travel out to the Platforms in Alabama and Louisiana to find and catch fish? The revenue that the Oil Industry would bring to Florida would overtake the revenue generated by tourism (which is dying off) and increase the revenue of the fishing industry. The taxes and royalties paid by the Oil companies as well as the taxes paid by their suppliers that would set up shop in Florida would lead to lowering your property taxes. There is no manipulation of the facts by the advocates of Offshore Drilling ONLY THE OPPONENTS!! Get informed, seek information, talk to those in the industry, visit the platforms and rigs, and see this firsthand before you speak Darryl, as you have NO FIRST HAND knowledge to be speaking in a public forum.

  10. Darryl on August 18th, 2009 8:47 am

    On “Drill, Drill, Drill”, if I not mistaken, the issue with Florida, is the tourism and fishing industry brings in more revenue to the state than oil rigs in the Gulf or Atlantic, so there is a legitimate fear of an oil spill damaging an existing industry. I know the technology is better than of old, but the fact remains, the rigs get damaged or destroyed during hurricanes and have oil spills. So which is more important, or is it worth the risk to the tourism and sports fishing industries is the question the people of Florida need to ask. Not sure how drilling will lower taxes in the state, I think that is some manipulation of fact.

    As to the reduction in population, that is good news. The ecology and geology of the state is such that it is over burdened by the current population, and the destruction to the environment by the mass migration of citizens to south Florida over the decades has strained everything, including your sources of fresh water. It is a book written over 50 years ago, but it is still very informative regarding the state ecology and that is “The River of Grass” by Marjory Stoneman Douglas. Here is a link for info on her and the Everglades. The coastal developments, especially on barrier islands has been an insane proposition from the beginning, thus impacting the entire state’s cost relating to land and insurance.

    http://www.everglades.org/msd.html

  11. S.L.B on August 18th, 2009 7:46 am

    If New Yorkers are leaving NY and settling in Florida, it’s most likely because they have made their money and fortune and are now coming here for their golden years to enjoy our beaches. There the only one’s that can afford to live in beach houses and condo’s. Duh!

    Florida citizens are leaving Florida because we have been stripped of what little industry we had and are left with nothing now. Not everyone wants to have a career in retail and the food industry. Their are no good paying jobs in Florida anymore!

    And then if that wasn’t bad enough, lets not just do a adequate increase on our taxes and fees to offset our deficite in our county, but let’s double and triple them and make things that much worse. And lets do it behind the tax payers backs so they won’t have any say so or vote in the matter!

    For the first time of my 47 years of living in Esc.Co.Florida, I am actually ashamed of our area and state and cannot wait for our last child to graduate from High School so that my husband and I can leave FLORIDA.

  12. Drill! Drill! Drill! on August 18th, 2009 6:28 am

    You want wan lower taxes, you want industry and jobs- Get off your high horse and allow Offshore Drilling. Sen. Nelson is lobbying hard against drilling. His platform is pure ignorance and he is brainwashing all of the Yanks in the state. Look at what has happened to California since they stopped offshore drilling- they don’t have enough money to run the state-YOUR HEADED IN THE SAME DIRECTION!!!! Drilling is safe to the environment; it brings jobs on and offshore and puts royalty and tax dollars into the state. Heck I bet 90% of the readers of this Website didn’t know Cuba is allowing the Chinese to drill less than 60 miles off the Florida Coast and they are directional drilling into reservoirs in US and Florida waters. Taking our oil and they are not held to the rules and regulations of the EPA and the MMS. 60 miles, there are US platforms in the Gulf of Mexico 160- 200 miles out! CALL SEN NELSON AND TELL HIM YOU WANT JOBS AND LOWER TAXES- TELL HIM TO DRILL!!!!!

Written by William Reynolds · Filed Under News